Thwarted Ambition
The author is a professor at China Foreign Affairs University
The ruling Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior partner the Komeito Party won 71 of the 124 seats in the House of Councilors election held on July 21, falling short of the two-thir ds majority it needed in the 245-seat upper house of the National Diet to revise the nation's constitution.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's proposal would add a clause to Article 9 of the Constitution legalizing Japan's Self-Defense Forces. Political parties in support of the revision, including the LDP, the Komeito and reformist parties, hold 160 seats, four short of the 164-seat minimum necessary to propose revisions to the constitution. That means the Abe administration will not be able to rely on its current political bloc to advance its constitutional revision.
此外，凤凰新华印务运用数字和网络技术，以科技的力量打造CCPP中国云出版印刷平台，实现出版“零距离”、印刷“零差异”、发行“零库存”、版权“零担忧”，以及“凤凰定制”等功能，大大简化了以往繁复的业务处理过程，实现了面对专业出版客户、大众客户的在线随时随地印刷服务。
Voter turnout dropped by 5 percent for the national election, indicating that in the current “low-desire society” in Japan, people's interest in politics is gradually declining. However, votes for the LDP did not decrease sharply and votes for Komeito actually increased, which can be viewed as voter approval for Abe's administration over the past six years. Yet voters also showed rationality and expressed reservations about the constitutional reform promoted by Abe, evidenced by his failure to win a supermajority.
记录两种诊断方式的检查结果，并与最终手术治疗结果进行对比，统计两种方式的误诊、漏诊人数，以此计算各诊断方式的诊断准确率；记录两种诊断方式检查得出的突出征象，并与最终手术治疗结果进行对比，统计具体病因诊断的准确率。
Abe will continue to pursue the revision of Japan's pacifist constitution. How he will further this goal and whether he can achieve it are a matter of great concern to East Asian countries as well as the international community.
Forcing a supermajority
To win public support for his constitutional move, Abe may adjust parts of his domestic and foreign policies during his term.
It is very possible that it will follow the U.S. military closer and use its military power imprudently. If this is the case, Japan will become another unstable factor that could disturb the Asia-Pacifi c region and the entire world. Along with the U.S. military, Japan's Self-Defense Forces could also show up in areas haunted by confl ict and turbulence.
This prospect has changed Asian countries' perception of Japan. Instead of provoking forgiveness of Japan's crimes during WWII, Japan's revision of its constitution will make the continent more alert and suspicious of Japan's policies and value orientation.
由于Au、Ag等贵金属主要沉降在阳极泥里，因此降低电解液比重、增加阳极泥的沉降性有利于贵金属的回收。生产实践表明，阳极板银含量低于800×10-6时，电解铜含银可维持在(8～10)×10-6。图4表明，2017年以来，为提高金属回收率，电解重点加强中间物料管理及系统控制等手段，以铜为例，铜回收率为98.8%左右，为提高公司经济效益做出了贡献。
Japan will take the initiative to control its adverse policy toward China to maintain the momentum in enhanced bilateral ties
Negative influence
Japan's revision of its constitution will produce a negative global influence. Since World War II, Japan has focused on economic growth and has won worldwide approval by observing its pacifi st constitution.
Abe's constitutional revision could lead the way for Japan to move toward strengthening its armaments supply and establishing a national defense army, which may be followed by a pursuit of military power. This could also mean that in the future, Japan will attempt to get more involved in Asia-Pacifi c and international military affairs.
第一，立足历史。习近平总书记曾指出，“历史是最好的教科书”。学习历史可以帮助我们正确认识和把握我们从哪里来，现在在哪里，将要到哪里去，既不妄自菲薄，也不妄自尊大。第二，关注现实。思想政治理论课教师要时刻关注现实，提升教育教学实效性，将党的最新会议精神、理论发展前沿、国内国际时事热点融入教学中。第三，放眼世界。当今的世界是开放的世界，中国的发展离不开世界，世界的繁荣也离不开中国。中国越来越多地为世界瞩目，在国际事务和全球治理中发挥着越来越重要的作用。中国坚持走自己的路，但并不意味着排斥人类文明优秀成果。
This will not be realized quickly, however; long-term negotiations and consultations among the four parties will be required. It needs the ruling bloc to make compromises or even concessions on certain policies to win support. Moreover, the Abe administration may even reshuffl e its cabinet to include members of other parties to buy their approval for the constitutional reform.
In the domestic arena, Abenomics will be further pursued, with the pace for raising the consumption tax and implementing it in October rushed, even though the disapproval rating for this issue is still higher than 55 percent. Meanwhile, Abe will promote free education from kindergarten to university, which will win support from a considerable number of people. The prime minister will also gradually raise pensions and salaries, which are critical to him and his ruling bloc to maintain a high approval rating.
The LDP could possibly lure other small parties to its camp, like the Democratic Party for the People (DPP), which won 21 seats. Currently, the DPP does not support the administration's constitutional revision, but the party is divided. A considerable number of its members agree with the LDP and Komeito, however, some forces are against the revision, and their opposition poses a huge obstacle to a union with the ruling bloc. Nevertheless, the party may be persuaded to change its stance and support the constitutional revision. If it does, along with the support of the Japan Restoration Party, which won 13 seats, the revision forces will have a supermajority in the House of Councilors and can comfortably propose the revision.
Future policy
For now, the LDP and its political partners hold over two thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives, the lower house of the Diet, that can pave the way for proposing the revision to the constitution. But the real problem lies in the lack of such a majority in the upper house.
分析康熙南巡期间排名前十的游览景观，杭州以西湖、灵隐、孤山和云栖4处景观列于首位，扬州和镇江均以2处景观即天宁寺和高旻寺、金山和焦山并列第二，苏州和常州各以1处景观即虎丘、惠山位居第三。此外，杭州的钱塘江、江宁的报恩寺是康熙帝赋诗吟诵的重要景观，扬州的天宁寺和高旻寺、苏州的华山是康熙帝题联赐匾的重要景观。
In addition to a two-thirds majority in both houses, a majority in a public referendum is also required to make revisions to the Japanese Constitution, according to current law. Japanese people have the final say on this issue and for now, the ratio of those against the revision is still higher than 51 percent. The ruling bloc and other minor parties have to win more approval from the public through propaganda or other measures, which won't be easy.
难度再大一些的 “图图，我们想往上爬又爬不上去的时候是怎么做的？比如我们在操场爬梯子，你是怎么上去的？脚的力量不够，手有没有帮忙呢？手放哪里了？是不是用手抓住了梯子边上栏杆你就更有力了？那我们现在抓个什么东西来借力呢？”后面的同上了。
In foreign policy, the Abe administration will continue to consolidate its close alliance with the U.S. And in order to reach a bilateral free trade deal with the U.S., Japan is likely to make substantial concessions and basically satisfy all U.S. demands in trade negotiations. However, the Japanese ruling class has found it hard to predict U.S. policy under President Donald Trump's fl ipfl ops, which have actually started to alienate the traditional ally. That may prompt the Abe administration to implement a more independent policy to reduce its reliance on the U.S., especially in military and defense areas. Japan may take a more autonomous military stance and increase defense against the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Russia and China.
The administration may stop investing energy in improving bilateral ties with Russia since its neighbor has made it clear that it will not return two islands off Hokkaido to Japan, refusing to even negotiate on the issue. Russia's stance means that Abe's arduous diplomatic efforts to regain Southern Kuriles from Russia over the past few years have failed. Since Abe seemingly lost enthusiasm and passion, there will be no breakthroughs in Japan-Russia ties in the short or medium term.
As for its relations with the Republic of Korea (ROK), tensions are still high, with no signs of a thaw. Japan may tighten sanctions against the ROK and bilateral ties may continue to slide.
The Abe administration will make more efforts to improve ties with China to pave the way for Chinese President Xi Jinping's planned visit next spring. But this overture does not mean Japan will ease its containment and vigilance against China. Japan will continue to adopt a preventive policy toward China, make military preparations and try to contain China in the East China Sea and South China Sea, and this may all be done under different pretexts.
However, Japan will take the initiative to control its adverse policy toward China to maintain the momentum in enhanced bilateral ties. Improving ties with China will win points for the Abe administration, thus, it will make the utmost effort to progress in order to get voter approval. But Abe and his administration have long been weary of China's system and future development; therefore, it will be diffi cult to restore bilateral ties wholeheartedly on Japan's part.
The ruling coalition's failure to win a supermajority in the upper house of parliament shows resistance to constitutional revision By Zhou Yongsheng
Copyedited by Rebeca Toledo
Comments to yulintao@bjreview.com