Uncertain Prospects
By Yu Shujun
An escalation of the China-U.S. trade dispute may further dampen the outlook for Chinese investment in the U.S.
A staff member works at the Emerging Technology Center of Chinese home appliances maker Midea in California,the U.S., on May 15, 2017
Along with additional tariffs on Chinese products, intensified efforts by the United States to restrict Chinese investors are weighing on cross-border investment.
Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States dropped over 80 percent year on year to just $5 billion in 2018 from$29 billion in 2017 and $46 billion in 2016,according to a report recently released by the U.S.-China Investment Project, a research initiative led by the Rhodium Group and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations.Though Chinese investment in the United States declined sharply in 2018, its investment in overseas markets grew 4.2 percent year on year to $130 billion, according to the Ministry of Commerce of China.
The report said that the decrease is not a mere correction following the previous boom,but a fall to the lowest levels since 2011.
The sharp decline is partly due to China’s restriction on speculative outbound direct investments in real estate, hotels and sports clubs starting in late 2017. A more noticeable reason is that Chinese investors are encountering stepped-up investment screening by the United States amid tensions between the two largest economies.
一方面，完善政务公开、村务公开的联动公开机制，形成政务公开带动村务公开，村务公开促进政务公开的发展模式。另一方面，加强政务公开与村务公开的制度建设研究，包括加强县、乡、村级层面的民主评议制度、公开内容备案制度建设等，加强对政务公开、村务公开管理办法的监督检查，为建立政务公开、村务联动公开机制，实现二者的有机衔接提供制度基础，最终实现政务公开与村务公开的联动发展，协同共进，形成和完善针对“微腐败”的防范与治理机制。
“A more defensive U.S. posture and the uncertain outlook for bilateral relations clearly impacted U.S.-China investment flows in 2018,much more so than trade,” said the report.“Our data show that while trade protection has been more bark than bite (U.S. imports from China have risen throughout the Donald Trump administration), the hawkish mood has deeply impacted U.S.-China investment dynamics.”
“On the investment side, we’ve already had some disconnections,” said Daniel Rosen,a founding partner of the Rhodium Group and one of the authors of the report, at its launch event in New York City on May 8.
However, policy hurdles in both the United States and China remain significant headwinds to increasing Chinese investment in 2019 and beyond.
The report said that irrespective of any trade deal, U.S. national security concerns and China-U.S. strategic mistrust are rooted in structural trends that will persist for a prolonged period of time.
Regardless of the ultimate outcome, it will take some time for Chinese firms to feel confident that they can continue to access the U.S. market without running afoul of these new regulations, said the report.
长征途中，中国共产党领导的中国工农红军，“转战十余省，其中百分之九十的路程行进在少数民族地区，”[2]为了揭露国民党反动派和地方军阀的欺骗宣传，加深少数民族对党和红军的认识，让少数民族更好地了解党的民族政策和抗日救国的主张，提高他们的思想觉悟，党把民族工作放在了重要地位，认真开展民族工作，非常注重做好对少数民族的宣传工作，较早的展示出我们党的少数民族政策基本思想，对我们党的民族观形成、民族工作开展、民族政策制定方面做出了重大贡献，对我们认识中国多民族的国情，巩固和发展社会主义民族关系产生了十分重大影响，积累了重要的民族工作经验。
“If there is a truly ‘toxic’ environment between two nations, it doesn’t really matter what the technical legal terms say is permissible and what’s not. It’s generally going to be fairly difficult to make investments,” Rosen said.
The authors called on leaders to “manage this reality and find ways to address novel security concerns without too much protection,which would threaten long-term innovative capacity and prosperity.”
Increased scrutiny
Last year, there was tougher enforcement by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) and a lot more investment screening, including going back to already closed transactions and asking companies to divest again, said Thilo Hanemann, a partner at the Rhodium Group and another author of the report.
Chinese investors had to give up deals worth more than $2.5 billion in the United States in 2018 due to unresolved CFIUS concerns, according to the report.
不过，在两家防震器竞争激烈的同时，上世纪70年代期间石英革命悄然发生，对机械钟表业造成了严重危机，也危及了上游的零配件产业。拥有上千员工的Portescap公司的Incabloc防震器订单量骤减，无力维持整个公司运转，后期被迫剥离了Incabloc防震器生产部分，转投向了更具有“前景”的石英手表微型电机。1988年，Eric Zutter 注册了一家新的公司，名为“Incabloc SA”。他继续生产着Incabloc防震器，保留了之前生产线和一些员工，从而保持了公司的技术基础。
In sectors such as information and communications technology (ICT) and infrastructure,Chinese investment suffered the most from intensified U.S. national security reviews last year.
Data from the report show that China’s FDI in the U.S. ICT sector decreased from $2.7 billion in 2017 to $200 million in 2018. In the transportation, construction and infrastructure sectors, Chinese investment plunged from$10.4 billion in 2017 to $100 million in 2018.
Worse still, “the shift that we’ve seen so far doesn’t even yet reflect the impact of these new regulations that were passed last year,”Rosen said.
While Chinese investment in the United States witnessed sharp decline even before full implementation of the new FIRRMA and ECRA laws, forthcoming regulations “could yet create additional hurdles for Chinese investment in the United States,” said the report.
Nikkei Asia Review reported on May 9 that Japan is also set to restrict foreign investors from buying into its hi-tech manufacturers, “in a move that hews closely to the U.S. and its hardline policy on investments from China.”
According to the report, FIRRMA gave CFIUS jurisdiction to review non-controlling foreign interests in critical infrastructure and technologies, and sensitive personal data for the first time and ECRA could have far-reaching implications for research labs and other intellectual property-generating investments.
U.S. restrictive investment policies toward China have had a ripple effect on other economies as well.
“Aggressive U.S. unilateralism and defensive policies toward China are polarizing other members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Some are aligning with U.S. views on Chinese capital flows and general openness,” said the report.
In March, the Council of the European Union (EU) approved a new framework for screening FDI in the EU. The new legislation,which went into effect in April, does not name China, but is widely believed to target Chinese investments in technology and infrastructure.
化疗药物所致周围神经病变（chemotherapy‐induced peripheral neuropathy，CIPN）是指肿瘤患者化疗时使用了具有神经毒性的化学药物导致的周围神经损伤，它是多种化疗药物常见的非血液学不良反应［1］。可引起周围神经病变的化疗药物包括铂类、紫杉类、长春碱类及沙利度胺和硼替佐米等［2］。CIPN是一些化疗药物的剂量限制性毒性，严重时可能导致化疗中断或更改方案，进而影响疗效甚至增加癌症的死亡率。研究表明年龄、性别、剂量、合并基础疾病等可能是CIPN的影响因素［3］。
培育无病毒种苗、育苗后1年内在大棚里集中管理、通过成立合作社规范职工防治病害的意识和行动……为把一颗“国宴佳果”继续种好，红江人不停探索，一腔执念。
The comparative evaluation of the outcome after infrainguinal arterial disease (IAD) revascularization demonstrates controversial results[1].
Japan will amend its Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act, adding 20 more sectors that will restrict foreign investment, including integrated circuits and semiconductor memory devices, software developers and data processing services.
Uncertain future
The China-U.S. investment report said that Chinese firms’ commercial appetites for investing abroad remain strong. Given that Chinese outbound investment stock is still low at just 15 percent of the GDP, there remains ample opportunity for growth in non-sensitive areas.
The report was unveiled immediately after Trump’s May 5 announcement of additional tariffs on Chinese products.
Jack Ma, Board Chairman of China’s e-commerce giant Alibaba Group, speaks at a two-day conference titled Gateway 17 in Detroit, where he presented the opportunities in the Chinese market available to U.S. small businesses, on June 21, 2017
These refer to the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA) and the Export Control Reform Act (ECRA), which were passed by U.S. lawmakers in August 2018.
It also found that Chinese venture capital in the United States had remained virtually untouched by investment screening until November 2018 when the FIRRMA pilot program started, but upcoming implementation rules may deal a heavy blow to Chinese venture capital and other minority investment.
From a classic international economic policy perspective, Rosen said, against the threat of higher tariffs, there is a new motivation to do direct investment on the other side of the tariff wall. “So the tariff war per se isn’t the killer to the potential for a two-way investment flow. It's the‘toxicity’ that's behind it,” Rosen said.
The uncertain outlook for Chinese investment is definitely not good news for the United States.
“Investment done right creates enormous benefits: It creates jobs in local communities,increases choice for consumers and creates productive business relationships that strengthen people-to-people connections,”wrote Stephen Orlins, President of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations in the report’s foreword. “When our countries add regulations that unnecessarily impede investment,however, these positive forces are diminished significantly, even reversed.”
由图2可知，鲜肉泥的红度值随腌制时间的延长而下降，因此，选取腌制3 h时红度值较高的生鲜肉泥用于制作肉脯。
Catherine Pan-Giordano, Partner and Corporate Group Head at Dorsey & Whitney’s New York office, cited Chinese investment in the U.S. biotech sector as an example. She said that more than 50 percent of U.S. biotech funding comes from other countries and the vast majority comes from China, which is in fact the single largest investor in U.S. biotech programs,startups and institutions. “So we may not feel the impact today, but the industry is already feeling it,” she said.
李小树怔怔地看着画稿上的许春花，大黑猫在他的肩头“喵喵”大叫两声后，就纵身跳到许春花的肖像上，它的爪子毫不留情地在画稿上留下几条划痕。
Although the U.S. health, pharmaceutical and biotech sectors attracted the most Chinese investment in 2018, the amount declined to$1.4 billion from $2.5 billion in 2017.
Adding that biotech programs include cancer and stem cell research, Pan-Giordano said,“By the time people feel the impact on their real lives, it may be a life and death situation. So it affects everybody.”
“I think the private sector needs to lead the dialogue by talking about facts, talking about data,” she said.
Constance Hunter, chief economist for KPMG LLP, said that the business roundtable seems to have had very little impact on the Trump administration and its handling of the situation. “We’re in uncharted territory where it would seem there are a lot of interests aligned to having tensions de-escalated, but the political bodies are acting against those commercial interests.”
《西北园艺》（综合）为全国公开发行的园艺类专业科技期刊，刊登内容为整个“大园艺”作物和“大园艺”产业。欢迎园艺界广大同人积极投稿！
Copyedited by Rebeca Toledo
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