On the Transatlantic Relationship
Zhang Jian*
Abstract: The transatlantic relationship is undergoing profound change.Characterized by self-centeredness, the Trump administration clearly despises Europe, and even exerts hostility toward Europe and the transatlantic alliance. The vast majority of the European governments and people are turning anti-American, and there is a particular dislike toward Trump. They are questioning the value and the future of the transatlantic alliance, a phenomenon that is rare in the history of transatlantic relations.Although the current changes in transatlantic relations are focused on Trump, these are actually the result of the combined effects of geopolitical differences and economic competition between Europe and the US, and internal social and political changes over recent years, amongst others.The transatlantic relationship is now entering a new era, during which disputes and contradictions are set to mount. The relationship is unlikely to return to what it once was, even if another US president takes office.The process of normalization and de-specialization between the two sides seems certain to accelerate, with more fundamental changes in the Western world set to occur. However, the transatlantic relationship remains unique. Despite many internal contradictions, Europe and the US share more mutual willingness than they do differences when it comes to dealing with non-Western world issues such as China and Russia. The transatlantic alliance will continue to exist for a long time to come, and it will remain the dominant factor in international geopolitics and major power relations.
Keywords: transatlantic relationship,Europe,US
S ince US president Donald Trump took office in 2017, transatlantic divergence has increased. What has happened to the two sides of the Atlantic?Are the changes seen short or long term changes?Where are they headed?
Divergence
The transatlantic relationship under US president Donald Trump is worse than it was under the Obama administration. US neglect of the allies’interests and concerns have left the European countries unsatisfied and disappointed. There are serious question marks over the value and future of the transatlantic allies.
The Trump administration clearly despises and even shows hostility toward Europe and the transatlantic alliance. The major security interests of the EU have been damaged.The EU countries want the US to stay in the Iran nuclear deal because diplomatic accomplishments have resolved Middle Eastern nuclear proliferation and avoided US-Iran conflict. The state visit of the French president Macron from April 23 to 25, 2018, and Germany’s Chancellor Merkel’s visit on April 27 are the most recent efforts made to persuade Donald Trump not to walk away from the deal.However,Trump’s decision on May 8 to violate the Iran agreement and to reimpose sanctions against Iran sent a clear message to the Europeans:America will impose sanctions on countries that do business with Iran,purchase Iran’s oil, trade foreign currency with Iran or invest in Iran. The European countries fall into these categories.Trump does not take Europe’s interests into consideration.The UK, France and Germany have pledged to remain in the Iranian nuclear deal, and Iran has said that a guarantee for keeping Iran’s oil exports going is one of the conditions that Iran has set in order to keep the nuclear deal.But it is highly risky for European countries to meet its requirements, despite governments’efforts. If Iran withdraws from the deal, its nuclear program would trigger chain reactions in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Egypt would be likely to pursue nuclear weapons. It is possible that the US would attack Iran, and that there would be a new influx of refugees that would present another nightmare for Europe.A further decision made by Trump also disregards EU interests.On December 6, 2017, the US president announced recognition of Jerusalem as the diplomatic capital of Israel, and ordered the relocation of the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. The chaos in the Middle East and Muslims’dissatisfaction and hostility toward Israel and Europe both stem from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The EU remains firmly committed to the two-state solution as the only way to achieve lasting peace and stability in the Middle East. For most countries in Europe, what Trump has done would jeopardize the prospect of peace for the Israelis and the Palestinians,increase the risk of conflict in the Middle East, and damage the EU’s security concerns.
The US describes Europe as a strategic competitor as opposed to a strategic partner. In March 2002, former US president George Bush attempted to institute tariffs on steel products. These ranged from 8% to 30%. His intention must have been to secure political support in the steelproducing swing states. The European Union, affected by the introduction of this measure, immediately announced plans to attack any new steel tariffs at the World Trade Organization (WTO). They have been also at odds over Boeing and Airbus subsidies for decades.But the WTO provided them a basic framework and allowed them to follow WTO rules in terms of the economy. However, an angry Trump said on Twitter the following Tuesday morning that,“We have a massive trade deficit with Germany,plus they pay far less than they should on NATO&military,…Very bad for US. This will change.”1 Mark Landler,“Blind Spots in Trump’s Trade Tirade against Germany,”New YorkTimes,May30,2017,accessed June15,2018,https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/30/world/europe/trump-merkel-germany-macron.html. In the name of safeguarding national security, the Trump administration is placing steel and aluminum tariffs on US allies Canada, Mexico and the EU. These entities had previously been exempt from the 25% tariffs on steel imports and 10% tariffs on aluminum imports.2 Jacob Pramuk, Eamon Javers and David Reid,“Trump Administration Will Put Steel and Aluminum Tariffs on Canada,Mexico and the EU,”May 31,2018,accessed October 12, 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/31/trump-administration-will-put-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-on-canada-mexico-and-the-eu.html. On June 1, 2018, US tariffs entered into force for steel and aluminum imports from the EU, and French Minister of the Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire said that,“There is no reason why the EU should be hit by new tariffs on trade from the Trump administration. We are not responsible for the overcapacity in steel and aluminum… . We cannot negotiate under the pressure.”1 Silvia Amaro,“French Minister Pushes for Exemption from US Tariffs,”accessed June15,2018,https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/28/eu-pushes-back-on-us-tariffs-potential-trade-war-french-minister.html. At Trump’s request,the government carried out an investigation to examine whether or not imported cars and trucks posed a similar threat. Trump also justified this on the grounds of national security. Trump wants tariffs as high as 25% on imported vehicles and parts. Auto tariffs would be devastating for Europe, especially for Germany.How can the EU endure this problem as US allies?
America despises European values, and is eroding transatlantic stability. Europe accords priority to democracy, human rights, the international system, multilateralism, international organizations and free trade as the guarantees for global peace and stability. Europe considers that since the 1950s a strong transatlantic relationship has ensured the effectiveness of the system. It has recognized and safeguarded the US leadership despite occasional US unilateral hegemonic policies. Since Donald Trump took office, European cherished values have been mocked and even discarded by the United States. In January 2017, Donald Trump signed an executive order banning entry to the US from people from seven Muslim-majority countries, including Iran, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Somalia. Trump is seen as racist and as politically incorrect by many mainstream critics in Europe.He has criticized his European allies over the refugee crisis, and threatened to withdraw from the WTO, the Paris Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal.An American exit would weaken the transatlantic allies, and it would be difficult for Europe alone to lead the free world. The US-European rift will divide further, and the Westerndominated world order will collapse.
Donald Trump hopes for a disintegration of the EU. The US has been the largest driving force for EU integration since World War II. Successive US administrations have showed basic support for EU integration.However, what Trump has done demonstrates an unprecedented disregard and hostility toward the EU.The hostile concepts of Donald Trump toward multilateral institutions and international organizations demonstrate his belief that the EU has unfavorable implications on the United States.Donald Trump blamed Germany for controlling exchange rates, and doing harm to US interests.He said that,“Brexit is a great thing.It’s an amazing vote,very historic.”1 “Donald Trump in Scotland:‘Brexit a Great Thing’,”accessed June 15, 2018,https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-36606184. He even supports right-wing populism in Europe.
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The Trump administration has posed challenges to Europe in the diplomatic, security, economic and value fields while previous contradictions only lay in major events such as the Vietnam War, the Iraqi War and the Russia policy. As a result, most Europeans doubt and despise the US president which is rare in the history of transatlantic relations.
Europe-Russia economic collaboration far exceeds US-Russia economic ties.Russia is Europe’s third largest trading partner,and the 30th largest goods trading partner of the US.1 Office of the United States Trade Representative,“Russia: U.S.-Russia Trade Facts,”accessed June 15,2018,https://ustr.gov/map/countriesaz/ru. Between 2013 and 2015, the US suffered a decline of 0.24% in its export share to Russia relative to total exports outside the United States. This figure is below that of any EU country, where the average is a 2.8% decline, with the highest sufferer,Estonia, at 12.7%, and the lowest, the UK, at 0.6%.2 Erica Moret, Francesco Giumelli and Dawid Bastiat-Jarosz,“Sanctions on Russia: Impacts and Economic Costs on the US,”Graduate Institute Geneva, March 20,2017. As such, Europe has suffered the most in terms of the economic consequences of sanctions against Russia. Compared with the US, Russia has become a more rational and friendly security partner to the EU in Middle East issues. The European countries are also willing to improve relations with Russia. The US has solidified its hardline policy toward Russia as it attempts to weaken energy ties with Russia and prepares to export liquefied natural gas to Europe.
French president Emmanuel Macron tried hard to win Donald Trump’s friendship, but failed to influence him. After the G7 meeting in 2018, the response from Macron suggested an end to what observers had noted was a budding“bromance”between the French president and Mr. Trump.2 “Merkel Labels Trump Behaviour‘a Bit Depressing’as G7 Agreement Lies in Tatters,”accessed June 15,2018,https://news.sky.com/story/g7-row-emmanuel-macron-attacks-donald-trumps-fits-of-anger-11400497. Atlanticism was once the keystone of the British foreign policy, and the UK typically sided with the US and fought against Old Europe in the face of transatlantic inconsistencies and conflict. But now the UK chooses to keep company with the European states in security and economy. Gerhard Schroeder, the former German Chancellor, and Angela Merkel were committed to transatlanticism, but there has been a significant shift in Germany’s US policy.After the summits with Trump,Merkel said on May 28, 2017 that“Germany and Europe would naturally strive to remain on good terms with the US, Britain and other countries, even with Russia, but we have to know that we must fight for our future on our own, for our destiny as Europeans…. The times in which we could completely depend on others are, to a certain extent, over.”1 Jon Henley,“Angela Merkel: EU Cannot Completely Rely on US and Britain Any More,”Guardian,May 28,2017,accessed June 15,2018,https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/28/merkel-says-eu-cannot-completely-rely-on-us-and-britain-any-more-g7-talks. The widely cited words of Merkel reflect unprecedented mutual suspicion of the transatlantic allies. European people hold a negative perception of Trump and the United States.According to the Pew Research Center, negative views of the US are held most widely in Germany (62% unfavorable), Spain (60%) and the Netherlands(59%).2 “U.S. Image Suffers as Publics Around World Question Trump’s Leadership,”accessed June 15, 2018, http://www.pewglobal.org/2017/06/26/u-s-image-suffers-as-publics-around-world-question-trumps-leadership/.
Rationale
One of the direct causes for the uncertainty of the transatlantic allies is Donald Trump. In the view of the European mainstream elites, there is no difference between Trump and the far right populist parties such as France’s National Front,Alternative for Germany,and Italy’s Northern League.It is believed that a change in the US presidency would lead to an upturn in the relationship. The solution is far more complex than this, however. Any change in relations would be the consequence of a combination of factors,including geopolitical differences, economic competition and internal societal and political transitions.
Third,domestic politics on both sides of the transatlantic are changing in profound ways. The populism is, in essence, nationalism, antiglobalization, and unilateralism. The foundation of the transatlantic alliance lies in common interests, values and rivals. However, US interests are the highest priority for Trump, and even the European allies are potentially adversaries in trade. Even if Trump leaves office, the US populist policy would persist. It is noteworthy that American societal and political transitions play a vital role in transatlantic relations.
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Another issue in Europe is the refugee crisis and illegal immigration.As of mid-2016, the Muslim population in Europe (defined here as the 28 countries presently in the European Union, plus Norway and Switzerland)was estimated at 25.8 million(4.9%of the overall population).The Muslim population of Europe is expected to rise further from the current level of 4.9% to 7.4% by the year 2050. In this scenario, Muslims could comprise 14% of Europe’s population by 2050.1 Pew Research Center,“Europe’s Growing Muslim Population,”accessed June 15,2018,http://www.pewforum.org/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/. Most immigrants to the US come from Latin America and Asia, and the Trump administration intends to refuse admission to Muslim immigrants. Different demographic changes have had a profound impact on the orientation of policy. Europe is more sensitive to problems in the Muslim world, and more and more Europeans abhor the US, while the US is more concerned with Latin America and the Asia-Pacific. Cultural and kin relationships across the Atlantic look set to weaken,and diplomatic policies will become polarized.
他小心翼翼地伸出手摸着小鸡的头，却被它嫩嫩的嘴啄了一口，刘佳欣喜得叫出来，声音都在发抖。我想，幸好我没把那只蛋吃了。
Second,stiff economic competition has led to antagonism between the two sides of the transatlantic. The US remains dissatisfied with European traditional manufacturing companies. Since the outburst of the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010, the eurozone countries, led by Germany,have been committed to austerity and labor cost cuts. The European Central Bank has pursued a program of Quantitative Easing (QE) and lowered the euro’s exchange rate. Economic growth has been more reliant upon exports, given the shrinking domestic demand. Between 2012 and 2016, EU imports fell, while exports grew. In 2017, EU imports grew slightly more than exports, and subsequently the trade surplus fell from EUR 32 billion to EUR 23 billion.3 Extra-EU Trade in Good,Data from March 2018,accessed June 15,2018,http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Extra-EU_trade_in_goods#Evolution_of_extra-EU_trade. The Trump administration has charged Germany with unfair trade practices, because Germany sells more products in the US than the US does in Germany. The EU had a surplus of EUR 65 billion in trade with the US in 2008,and a record EUR 122 billion in 2015.4 Ibid.
Competition in the digital economy is also very tight. The US has an absolute advantage over Europe in the digital economy and in high technology. The tech giants such as Google, Apple and Amazon enjoy a high market share in Europe.It is difficult for European internet companies to survive both at home and abroad. A Digital Single Market Strategy for Europe, adopted in May 2015, has been essential for the European internal market. The implementation of this strategy offers an opportunity for European high tech enterprises to surpass the US in the digital economy.Under the Obama administration, the program PRISM collected internet communications from various US internet companies, and this triggered strong responses from the EU. Given its large market and consumption capacity, the primary concern of the EU has been to safeguard its digital sovereignty and to build its own systems.1 Minister Gabriel,“CeBIT 2015 Is an Important Milestone for the Implementation of the Digital Agenda,”accessed June 15, 2018, https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Pressemitteilungen/2015/20150316-gabriel-cebit-2015-wichtige-wegmarke-fuer-umsetzung-der-digitalen-agenda.html. In recent years, the EU has adopted many measures to restrict the development of US high tech companies in Europe. European governments have declared a war against the growing power of the American internet giants over issues such as antitrust, tax and privacy. Microsoft, Google, Uber, Facebook, Amazon,Intel, Apple and Qualcomm have faced fines for their monopoly. The EU antitrust investigation into Android is currently concluding, and a fine is expected to be announced in July. The EU could fine Google up to US$11 billion, or 10 percent of Alphabet’s (Google’s parent company) annual turnover.2 Tom Warren,“Google Facing a Microsoft Moment with EU Fine over Android Antitrust Violations,”accessed June 15,2018,https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/7/174 37850/google-eu-android-antitrust-fine-rumors-july. The EU is also investigating charges of tax evasion by US high tech companies including Apple and Google. The European Commission ordered Apple Inc. to pay Ireland unpaid taxes of up to EUR 13 billion in August, 2016.3 Foo Yun Chee and Padraic Halpin,“EU Hits Apple with 13 Billion Euro Irish Tax Demand,”August 30,2016,accessed January 25,2019,https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-apple-taxavoidance-idUKKCN114201. US Republican and Democratic politicians have sent open letters expressing alarm over proposals that appear to target US technology companies.The US president says that Europe’s scrutiny of Silicon Valley is sometimes a mask for protectionism.1 Murad Ahmed, Duncan Robinson and Richard Waters,“Obama Attacks Europe over Technology Protectionism,”Financial Times,February 16,2015. In March 2018, the European Commission proposed new rules to ensure that the activities of digital businesses are taxed in the EU. According to the commission, of the 150 digital titans potentially captured by these levies, half are American.2 Mehreen Khan,“Trump Trade Threats Scupper Brussels Digital Tax Plans,”Financial Times,March 22,2018. The EU has adopted a single set of rules on privacy safeguards in the digital economy. The European Union’s top court has backed the right to data portability, and the“right to be forgotten.”Individuals have the right to control their data, and can request search engines to remove results. On December 15, 2015, the European Commission, the European Parliament and the European Council agreed on the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) to boost a single digital market in Europe. This regulation comes into effect on 25, May 2018, after which time individual data will be more effectively protected and regulated.The GDPR applies to the processing of the personal data of EU citizens by companies as well as by non-profit organizations. US high tech companies will be the first target to be affected. The United States Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross,commented that the implementation of GDPR could significantly interrupt transatlantic cooperation and create unnecessary barriers to trade, not only for the US,but for everyone outside of the EU.3 Wilbur Ross,“EU Data Privacy Laws Are likely to Create Barriers to Trade,”Financial Times,May 30,2018.
First, the US and Europe have moved in different political directions,and lost common ground. To some extent, the transatlantic allies have lost their orientation.The US had powerful national interests in the Atlantic; its security policy is now pivoting to Asia-Pacific. As Trump begins to shift the US strategic pivot to the Indo-Pacific Region, its security concern over the transatlantic allies has decreased. To a significant degree, the US does not consider EU security interests as its own. Today,Asian countries have the highest share of US overseas troops (38%), while around a third have been deployed to Europe (32%).3 Kristen Bialik,“US Active-duty Military Presence Overseas Is at Its Smallest in Decades,”accessed June 15, 2018, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/08/22/u-s-active-duty-military-presence-overseas-is-at-its-smallest-in-decades/. From 1989 to 1999, 30% of US arms exports went to NATO.From 2008 to 2017,this rate was lowered to 6%.1 “Trend Indicator Value of US Arms Exports,”SIPRI Arms Transfer Database,March 12,2018.
European populism has achieved important progress. The populist parties in Italy and Austria have formed new governments. In June 2018,the US Ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell, suggested that he wanted to empower the right.1 Rick Noack,“U.S.Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell Suggests He Wants to Empower the Right,”accessed June 15, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/world/wp/2018/06/04/trumps-envoy-to-germany-wants-to-empower-conservatives-but-he-doesnt-appear-to-mean-merkel/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.a7bdf42a9e38. It appears that more European populist parties are facilitating leaders’personal relations across the Atlantic, but populism will weaken shared values and undermine the transatlantic alliance.
Whether the US attaches importance to the transatlantic alliance depends on the usefulness of the EU.Europe is ageing fast.Of the world’s 25 oldest countries and areas in 2015,22 were in Europe.2 Wan He, Daniel Goodkind and Paul Kowal,An Aging World: 2015, International Population Reports,8-10,accessed June 15,2018,https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299528572_An_Aging_World_2015. In 2014,the EU’s working-age population started falling from a figure of 308 million, and it is projected to drop to 265 million in 2060.This is expected to increase the old-age dependency ratio (the number of over-65s as a proportion of the total working-age population) from 28 percent in 2010 to 58 percent in 2060.3 Mark Leonard and Hans Kundnaniapril,“Think Again:European Decline,”accessed June 15,2018,http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/04/29/think-again-european-decline/. A diminished workforce, declining tax revenues, and an increasing number of pensions will place a much heavier financial burden on most of the European countries, and they will be forced to lower their defense budgets. Trump complains that Europe is a free-rider, but most European countries are unable to improve the existing situation.
河流湿地包括河槽、河漫滩和河洼，淮河干流中游段长490 km，仅河槽水面就有1.45万hm2,两侧支流众多,较长的有20多条，绝大部分在下游段或入淮口处扩展成宽阔的河洼。另外，还有濛河分洪道、淠河总干渠、茨淮新河、怀洪新河等人工河渠交织。分布在淮河干流两侧的湖泊湿地绝大部分为永久性淡水湖,面积较大的有17个，河流、湖泊是沿淮最重要的湿地类型。数量众多、面积大小不一的水田、库塘散布在沿淮市（县）境内，水田总面积可达53.56万hm2。
Reducing its security dependence on the US, it is no longer necessary for Europe to recognize and acknowledge US security threats. Europe is currently focused on the vital security interests of the Middle East and Russia. Since World War II, the Middle East has been the common geopolitical concern for both the US and Europe. Much US attention is given to the Middle East, with the main objective being to fight against the Soviet Union, to obtain oil, to strengthen the position of the dollar, and to safeguard Israel. Since the end of the Cold War, the US has reduced its dependency on the Middle East oil after its exploitation of shale oil and gas. From 2005 to 2015, the US reliance on petroleum imports fell from 60% to 25% of total consumption, while its exports increased by over 300%.2 “How Much Oil Does the U.S. Export and Import?,”accessed June 15, 2018,https://www.americangeosciences.org/critical-issues/faq/how-much-oil-does-us-export-and-import. The divided Arab world, the Sunni-Shiite Muslims conflict, and Israel’s dominance in the Middle East have made America appear increasingly reluctant to take responsibility. In contrast to US strategic concerns, the EU pays more attention to security and the economy in the Middle East. Recent turbulence, in particular the conflict in Syria, has led to an outflow of refugees and immigration, and Europe is facing a huge challenge in Muslim immigrant integration, anti-terrorism and populism.New figures from the German Interior Ministry show that a record number of 1.1 million asylum-seekers arrived in 2015.3 Cynthia Kpoet,“Germany: 1.1 Million Refugee Arrivals in 2015,”accessed June 15,2018,https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-1-1-million-refugee-arrivals-in-2015/. Against this backdrop,Europe has been desperately calling for stability in the Middle East.However, there have been adverse economic consequences from US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal,and its refusal to admit refugees.
The Future
It will be hard for transatlantic relations to improve under Trump’s tenure. Divergences over trade, the Iran nuclear situation and international institutions have intensified.
于是医生找来专业人员教她修剪指甲的相关技巧，而她也十分热衷于学习。没过多久，她就开始替病友修整指甲。此后，她的性格发生了180°转变，没多久就出院了。后来，她在家门口开了一家店，挂起招牌，不到一年就能自力更生了。
In trade, the United States has imposed tariffs of 25% on steel imports, and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports from the European Union sinceJune1.SinceJune22,theEuropeanUnionhasenforcedtariffsonUS$3.3 billion worth of US products as retaliation for the duties the Trump administration placed on European steel and aluminum. On July 25, the European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and US President Donald Trump agreed to calm trade war fears. These conciliatory statements from Trump and Juncker could temporarily ease fears of a further escalation in the transatlantic trade war, but questions remain.2 Damian Paletta and Jeanne Whalen,“Trump, E.U. Announce Deal to Avert Escalation of Trade Tensions,”accessed January 25, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-pushes-25-percent-auto-tariff-as-top-advisers-scramble-to-stop-him/2018/07/25/f7b9af04-8f8a-11e8-8322-b5482bf5e0f5_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.cde2d049382c. Rivalries in the digital economy,manufacturing and finance will continue.
Six decades ago, the EU made efforts in defense integration, but gained slow progress. In June 2017, the Military Planning and Conduct Capabilities (MPCC) unit was established. This is a small step toward EU military command. On November 13, 2017, ministers from 23 member states signed a joint notification on the Permanent Structured Cooperation(PESCO), and handed it over to the High Representative and the Council.5 “Defence Cooperation:23 Member States Sign Joint Notification on the Permanent Structured Cooperation(PESCO),”accessed June 15,2018,http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/11/13/defence-cooperation-23-member-states-sign-joint-notification-on-pesco/. This is the most important move for the EU in defense. On March 28,2018, The European Commission outlined a plan for a“military Schengen zone”to increase its military mobility. The EU Commissioner for Transport Violeta Bulc said,“The objective is to make sure military needs are taken into consideration when developing infrastructure projects. This means a more efficient use of public money and a better-equipped transport network, ensuring a quick and seamless mobility across the continent.This is a matter of collective security.”The European Commission said that the action plan compliments rather than competes with NATO.1 “EU Outlines Plans for‘Military Schengen Zone’,”accessed June 15, 2018,http://www.dw.com/en/eu-outlines-plans-for-military-schengen-zone/a-43171043;“Defence: EU Moves on Military Mobility,”March 28, 2018, accessed June 15,2018,https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-Homepage/42226/defence-eu-moves-military-mobility_en. The goal of EU military defense integration is to reduce its dependence on the US, and this would provoke US discontent. The United States Secretary of Defense James Mattis said that the EU’s defense plans should enhance NATO’s common defense, rather than detract from it, and that there was a clear understanding that common defense is a NATO mission that belongs to NATO“alone.”2 Guy Chazan and Katrina Manson,“US Rattled by Plans to Forge Closer European DefenceTies,”Financial Times,February 19,2018. Kay Bailey Hutchison,US ambassador to NATO,issued a warning about the direction of Europe’s plans for growing defense cooperation. From the podium at the Western alliance’s headquarters on the outskirts of Brussels, she said that EU countries’cooperation should not be protectionist, duplicative of NATO work, or distracting from the responsibilities of the alliance.3 Michael Peel, Katrina Manson and Mehreen Khan,“Pentagon Fires Warning Shot to EU over NATO Unity,”Financial Times,February 15,2018.
The unilateral power of the US has jeopardized world stability. On June 8-9,Trump refused to sign a G7 joint statement with America’s allies,threatening to escalate his trade war on the country’s neighbors.3 Michael D. Shear and Catherine Porter,“Trump Refuses to Sign G-7 Statement and Calls Trudeau‘Weak’,”accessed October 19,2018,https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/09/world/.../donald-trump-g7-nafta.html.
In the medium and longer term, the Commission is proposing to increase the EU’s strategic autonomy,bolster the EU’s ability to protect its citizens,and make the EU a stronger global actor.4 European Commission - Press Release,“EU Budget: Stepping up the EU’s Role as a Security and Defence Provider,”accessed June 15,2018,http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-4121_en.htm.
On the Iran nuclear issue, the EU is discussing how to save the Iran nuclear deal. The Blocking Statute allows EU operators to recover damages arising from US extraterritorial sanctions from the persons causing them,and nullifies the effect in the EU of any foreign court rulings based on these. It also forbids EU persons from complying with these sanctions, unless exceptionally authorized to do so by the Commission.This is to prevent non-compliance seriously damaging their interests or the interests of the Union.1 European Commission - Press Release,“Updated Blocking Statute in Support of Iran Nuclear Deal Enters into Force,”accessed September 13, 2018, http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-4805_en.htm. At the same time, the US is warning European companies not to defy Iran sanctions.2 Michael Peel,“US Warns European Companies not to Defy Iran Sanctions,”Financial Times,September 7,2018. Accordingly,European corporations,including the French energy giant Total, have officially pulled out of Iran.If Iran also exits from the deal,the EU would face turbulence in the Middle East once again. Polarized policies toward the Middle East remain an obstacle to relations.
Defense industry integration is very important for the EU. A EUR13 billion European Defense Fund will provide the financial firepower for cross-border investments in state-of-the-art and fully interoperable technology and equipment in areas such as encrypted software and drone technology.4 European Commission - Press Release,“EU Budget: Stepping up the EU’s Role as a Security and Defence Provider,”June 13,2018. Accordingly, EU members would purchase more products made in the EU instead of the US.“If the EU develops its own fighter aircraft, it won’t need any more Lockheed Martin F-35s,”said one senior MP from Germany’s governing CDU party.1 Guy Chazan and Katrina Manson,“US Rattled by Plans to Forge Closer European Defence Ties.”
US dollar hegemony has affected the EU for a long time. In 2014, the French bank BNP Paribas was fined US$8.9 billion for dealing with Iran.The US Senate passed a bill to slap new sanctions on Russia in July 2017,and this opened the door to sanctions on companies in Germany and Austria that had worked with Russia on the Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline. Almost all European medium and large companies cannot live without the US dollar,and this is why the EU was not able to protect Iran’s legitimate rights after the US exit from the Iran nuclear deal. There is vibrant discussion about a euro clearing system in the EU.A Euro clearing system, applied to bulk and package petroleum products, would undermine US dollar hegemony. As such, there would be stiff competition between different currencies.
父亲走后，我已习惯睡前不再将房门锁上。母亲几乎每夜都会来到我的房里，不同的是，她从不在我的书桌上留下任何字句，也从不扭亮任何一点灯光。我依旧像从前那样：在母亲转动门把的时候翻过身去面对墙壁，眯着双眼；我依然不敢贸然起身惊动母亲，依然没有勇气在那样的时刻里与母亲的眼神相对。
It will take a long time for transatlantic relations to normalize.The US can expect full support from the EU in all areas, and the EU will play a more important role in Middle East security and the maintenance of the international order.
如表1所示，原序列的ADF值大于5%临界值，不能拒绝原假设，表明原序列数据不平稳；而原序列一阶差分的ADF值小于5%临界值，可以拒绝原假设，故可认为是平稳序列，即ln（crmb）、ln（ix）、ln（ex）是一阶单整序列。
In the near future, the transatlantic allies will face more conflicts and contradictions. On the one hand, the US is repositioning its own national interests and reassessing if it can maintain ties with its allies at the cost of economic and military protection. On the other, Europe has adapted to US protectionism and foreign policy based on transatlantic affairs. Facing the US transition,the EU should adjust its orientation and policy toward the US.
But the EU and the US have still enjoyed special relations. In the economy, among the EU’s trading partners, the United States has been the largest partner for the EU, and vice versa. In 2017, Europe accounted for 54% of global FDI inflows into the US, and 64% of US global FDI outflows went to Europe.2 Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan,“The Transatlantic Economy 2018,Executive Summary, Annual Survey of Jobs, Trade and Investment between the United States and Europe,”accessed June 15,2018,https://transatlanticrelations.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/TA2018_ExecutiveSummaryPocket.pdf. In security, NATO provides a platform for both sides to overcome their differences and seek common interests. Marriage between US and European people is common. A visa waiver program facilitates more frequent interactions between EU and US people. More European students want to study in the US.
在河北农业大学校园漫游APP搭建完成后，在固定位置和走廊墙壁上等位置设立宣传展板，宣传李保国精神、太行山精神、9301班精神等河北农业大学的传统文化，并定期进行更新，但是旧宣传展板不删除，采取覆盖模式，同学们可以向前翻阅学习河北农业大学的传统文化精神。
Europe continues to rely on the US to a large degree. As the largest export market, the US is a significant factor in EU economic growth.European countries will remain committed to the transatlantic alliance.The US is gaining momentum with the EU in security. For instance, the two sides coordinate very closely on South China Sea issue.At the Shangri-La Dialogue in early June, French and UK defense ministers announced that Royal Navy ships would be joining their US counterparts in challenging China’s territorial claims in the disputed regions of the South China Sea.1 “France, UK Announce South China Sea Freedom of Navigation Operations,”accessed October 24,2018,https://navaltoday.com/2018/06/06/france-uk-announce-south-china-sea-freedom-of-navigation-operations/.
The EU and the US have common enemies. Despite their different stances on China, both the EU and the US exert pressure on China’s development, and make attempts to force China to change its development model. They require China to strengthen intellectual property protection and eliminate investment restrictions. The US maximizes sanctions against Russia with the involvement of the EU, while the EU draws support from the US to constrain Russia.
Despite their contradictions and conflicts, the transatlantic alliance,which dominates international geopolitics and major power relations, will remain strong for a long time to come.
英拉对访华期间参观中国国家防汛抗旱总指挥部和水利部，了解中国防汛抗旱减灾管理工作感到非常高兴。她指出，去年泰国遭受重大水灾后，中国政府及时提供援助，帮助和支持泰国人民渡过难关。对此，泰方深表感谢。
* Zhang Jian is a research professor and director of the Institute of European Studies, CICIR. His primary research areas are European integration, EU diplomacy and Sino-EU relations. This article, entitled“Kua daxiyang guanxi de bianhua ji qianjing”, was first published in Xiandai guoji guanxi [Contemporary International Relations],No.9(2018):35-43.
(edited by Zhang Yimeng)
标签：transatlantic论文; RELATIONSHIP论文; Europe论文; US论文; the Institute of European Studies论文; CICIR论文;