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Los Angeles—Bill Joy is not a Luddite（注：卢德派成员，卢德派是19世纪初英国工人运动的一派，极力阻挠雇主使用节省劳动力的机械。后泛指在一切领域反对机械化和自动化的人）.He is not afraid ofnew tectmology.On the contrary,as founder and chief scientistof ★ Sun Microsystems（注：一家著名网络公司）,tile SiliconValley company that devised JavaScript（注：一种由NetscapeCommunications和Sun Microsystems公司共同开发的描述语言，它与Java语言的关系比较松散，主要能为网页添加基本的联机应用程序和功能。）and countless other Intemet-era computerinnovations,he has been ill the vanguard of the high-techrevolution for more than 20 years:a geek's（注：geek原意是街头杂耍中由低级演员扮演的野人，做吞吃活动物和观众投放的污物等疯狂表演。常借指行为疯狂、怪异的人，带一定贬义。这里是说Joy原是个天不怕地不怕的人。）geek if ever there was one.His latest innovation is the new Jini techmology.Based onJava,Jini is predicted to become file leading managementsoftware for home networks.
[2] But recently Joy took a glimpse into the fulure andit scared him to death.
[3] What he saw was a world in which humans have beeneffectively supplanted by machines;a world in which super-powerful computers with at least some attributes of humanintelligence manage to replicate themselves and develop theirown autonomy;a world in which people become superfluous andrisk becoming extinct.
[4] Writing in the April issue of Wired magazine,this guruof high technology said:
[5] "It might be argued that the human race would never befoolish enough to hand over all the power to the machines.Butwe are suggesting neither that the humanrace would voluntarilyturn power over to the machines northat the machines wouldwillfully seize power.
[6] "What we do suggest is that the human race might easily（注：free from pain,discomfort of trouble舒舒服服地）permititself to drift into a position of such dependence onthe machines that it would have no practical choice but toaccept all of the machines'decisions.As society and theproblems that face it become more and more complex andmachines become more and more intelligent,people will letmachines make more of their decisions for them,simply becausemachine-made decisions will bring better results than man-madeones.
[7] "Eventually a stage may be reached at which the decisionsnecessary to keep the system running will be so complex thathuman beings will be incapable of making them intelligently.Atthat stage the machines will be in effective control.Peoplewon't be able to just turn the machines off,because they willbe so dependent on them that turning them off would amount tosuicide."
[8] Previously,Joy had dismissed such scenarios as sci-fifantasy,but then he listened to friends who were experts inrobotics and realised that this brave new world was muchcloser than any of us might imagine—as close as 30 years away.
[9] The further that Joy dug into the cutting edgeof research in the new technologies—robotics,geneticengineering and nanotechnology—the more horrified he became.Notonly did he see scenarios in which robots would take on alife of their own and exterminate the human race,but he beganto see ways in which other staples of sci-fi(science-fiction)horror might come to pass.
[10] They include the ability to download consciousnessinto a computer and thus effectively merge human beings andmachines into a new organism;the proliferation of so-called★White Plagues（注：此词在医学上原指结核病，尤其是肺结核。这里大写，实际上是指美国近年流行的一本科幻小说的名字，这本书讲的就是in which以后的那些内容。故按字面译为“白色瘟疫”）,in whichmalevolent scientists or governments could unleash disease thatwould strike widely but selectively;genetically engineered bacteriaor plants that could dominate and wipe outexisting species.
[11] "We have yet to come to terms with the fact that themost compelling 21st-century technologies pose a differentthreat from the technologies that have come before,"Joy writes."Specifically,robots,engineered organisms,and nanobots sharea dangerous amplifying factor:they can selfreplicate.A bombis blown up only once—but one robot can become many,andquickly get out of control...
[12] "I think it is no exaggeration to say we are on the cuspof the further perfection of extreme evil,★ an evil whosepossibility spreads well beyond that which weapons of massdestruction bequeathed to the nation-states,on to asurprising and terrible empowerment of extreme individuals（注：
原文用bequeath一词隐喻苏联解体后核武器遗留在各民族国家，有可能被恐怖主义分子利用。此句语法稍为复杂：whose引起an evil的一句定语从句，其中的that用来代替后面事物所具有的possibility；which又引起that的一个定语从句，而which在从句中的地位是谓语bequeathed的直接宾语；on是“接着”的意思，它前后的两个to引起的短语是同位的，作间接语）."
[13] That's ★ quite some（注：值得注意的；不寻常的 ）warning
from one of the leading gurus of the technological age.
[14] "We are being propelled into this new century with noplan,no control,no brakes,"Joy concludes."Have we alreadygone too far down the path to alter course?I don't believe so,but we aren't trying yet,and the last chance to assertcontrol—the fail-safe point—is rapidly approaching."
洛杉矶——比尔·乔伊不是个卢德分子。他不惧怕新技术。相反，作为"Sun Microsystems"这家发明了Java描述语言和因特网时代无数其他计算机创新技术的硅谷公司的创始人和首席科学家，比尔20多年来一直是高技术革命的先驱：简直是个少见的“怪才”。比尔最近的创新是新的Jini技术。Jini是在Java的基础上开发出来的，人们预计它将成为领先的家庭网络管理软件。
[2]然而，乔伊最近对未来作了一次展望之后却深感恐惧。
[3]他所看到的是：一个人类实际上已被机器取代的世界；一个具有至少某些人类智能属性的超强计算机设法进行自我复制并不断扩大它们的自主意识的世界；一个人变得多余并且有消亡的危险的世界。
[4]这位高技术大师在《有线》杂志4月那一期上写道：
[5]“有人也许会争辩，人类决不会傻到拱手将所有权力都交给机器。可是我们的意思，既不是说人类会自觉自愿地将权力移交给机器，也不是说机器会蓄意夺权。
[6]我们确实要说的是，人类也许会舒舒服服地听任自己陷入一种依赖机器的境地，以致实际上别无选择，只有接受机器做出的全部决定。随着社会及社会面临的问题越来越复杂，随着机器越来越聪明，人们会让机器替自己作更多的决定，只是因为机器作的决定所产生的结果比人作的要强。
[7]“最终会达到这样一个阶段：为维持现行制度运转所需的各种决策将变得十分复杂，以至人类已无法明智地做出决策。到那时，机器实际上控制了一切。人们已不能简单地把机器一关了事，因为他们太依赖机器了，关掉它们就意味着自杀。”
[8]以前，乔伊只是把这种情景嗤为科幻小说中的幻想，但后来他听取了一些机器人专家朋友的意见并意识到：这个美好的新世界已近在眉睫，比我们任何人想象的都来得快——只有30年之遥了。
[9]乔伊在机器人学、基因工程和纳米技术等新技术研究领域的前沿钻得越深，就越感到恐惧。他不仅看到机器人将开始它们自己的生活并灭绝掉人类的情景，而且开始明白科幻小说中其他主要恐怖情节可能会以什么样的方式发生。
[10]这其中包括：能够将知觉下载到计算机中，从而真正把人和机器融合成一种新机体；所谓的“白色瘟疫”的扩散，即怀有恶意的科学家或政府可能广泛散播有选择侵袭的疾病；利用基因工程创造出来的细菌或植物有可能支配并消灭现存的物种。
[11]“我们还不得不接受这样一个事实，即21世纪最引人瞩目的技术会造成一种不同于以往技术的威胁，”乔伊写道。“具体地讲，机器人、基因工程制造出的生物以及纳米机器人等都有一个不断扩大的危险因素：它们可以自我复制。一颗炸弹只爆炸一次——但一个机器人却可以变成许多，而且很快就会失控……
[12]“我们正处在进一步完善一个极端祸害的起点，我认为这样说是毫不夸张的。这种祸害可能造成的危害，会远远超过大规模杀伤性武器可能遗留给各个民族国家，继而又惊人而可怕地赋予极端主义分子的那种破坏。”
[13]这是技术时代一位权威人物发出的值得注意的警告。
[14]“我们正毫无计划、毫无控制、毫无节制地被驱赶着进入这个新世纪，”乔伊在文章结束时说。“我们是否已经沿着这条道路走得太远，无法改弦易辙了呢？我认为不是这样，但我们现在还并没有尝试去改变，而最后一个掌握控制的时机——启动紧急安全装置的时刻——正在快速到来。”