The Iran Policy of the Trump Administration and Its Impact
Chi Yong*
Abstract: Since Donald Trump has come into office as president of the United States, the US foreign policy toward Iran has undergone major changes, which has been prominently manifested in such actions as endorsing hardline advocates who are against Iran to important political offices, withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(JCPOA), and imposing high economic, political and military pressure on Iran. The introduction of such policies toward Iran by the Trump administration has not only been brought about by Trump himself,but also influenced by the domestic political environment of the United States.Moreover, it is also closely related to the current changes in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. The Iran policy of the Trump administration will likely have multiple impacts, such as giving rise to political instability within Iran, worsening regional security, impacting the international non-proliferation regime, widening the disparity between the US and Europe, and even increasing the possibility of a military conflict breaking out between the US and Iran.
Keywords: US-Iran Relations, Trump Administration, JCPOA, economic sanctions
Since the successful Iranian Islamic revolution in 1979, the US has been in a state of opposition in its relations with Iran, recently with the Iranian nuclear issue becoming the focus of diplomatic confrontation between the two countries. Under the Obama administration, the US was engaged in a short but productive dialogue with Iran,however,since taking office in January 2017, President Donald Trump has begun to adjust US policy toward Iran, adopting a more targeted and hostile attitude on the Iranian issue.After more than a year of implementation, the Iran policy of the Trump administration has become clear,and it has greatly impacted US relations with Iran and the regional security of the Middle East.This paper intends to sort out the Iran policy of the Trump administration, probe into its realistic motivation and historical logic, and evaluate the major impacts it may bring about.
I
Since taking office, the Trump administration has gradually abandoned the Iran policy pursued by the Obama administration, which encouraged contact and negotiation with Iran,and resumed a tough or even hostile stance against Iran as was normal in the past. As soon as he took office, Trump pushed the government to perform a comprehensive review of US policy toward Iran and emphasized that once a new conclusion was reached, the US“will meet the challenges Iran poses with clarity and conviction.”1 Rex W.Tillerson,“Secretary of State Rex Tillerson Press Availability,”accessed August 5, 2018, https://www.state.gov/secretary/20172018tillerson/remarks/2017/04/270341.htm. In October of 2017, Trump and his national security decision team completed the nine-month review, as well as worked out and approved the new foreign strategy toward Iran, including neutralizing the Iranian government’s destabilizing influence, revitalizing the US traditional alliances and regional partnerships in the Middle East, and denying the Iranian regime all paths to weapons of mass destruction(WMDs), especially nuclear weapons.2 The White House,“President Donald J.Trump’s New Strategy on Iran,”accessed August 5, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-new-strategy-iran/. From the present perspective, this tough or hostile policy toward Iran may be seen in the following five actions taken by the Trump administration.
First, assigning officials who favor a tough policy toward Iran to important political positions. Almost all of the cabinet members and the officials in charge of foreign policy decisions appointed by Trump soon after taking office were those who are in favor of a tough policy toward Iran.1 Terry Atlas,“Hawkish Advisers Get Key Trump Roles,”Arms Control Today,Vol.48,No.4(May 2018):31-32. For instance, the former National Security Adviser John Robert Bolton was a representative among them, who once wrote an article that openly declared“withdrawing from the JCPOA as soon as possible should be the highest priority (for Trump)”, and went on to say“even assuming,contrary to fact, that Iran is complying with the JCPOA, it remains palpably harmful to American national interests.”2 John Robert Bolton,“Trump Must Withdraw from Iran Nuclear Deal—Now,”accessed August 5, 2018, http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/foreign-policy/342237-opinion-trump-must-withdraw-from-iran-nuclear-deal-now. Bolton was once an important member of the anti-Iranian team in the Trump administration,constantly pushing Trump’s Iran policy to develop in the opposite direction.3 Steven Feldstein,“Who Is John Bolton and What Does He Want?,”Boise State University Scholar Works,March 27,2018,1-3. The new US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is an even more extreme anti-Iranian figure, who, as early as 2016, openly demanded that US allies do not do any business with Iran,believing that wealth created by trade was likely to flow to Iran’s nuclear programs,and was more likely to become an indirect source of funds for international terrorism.4 Mike Pompeo,“Friends Don’t Let Friends Do Business with Iran,”accessed August 5,2018,http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/09/20/friends-dont-let-friends-do-business-with-iran-un-general-assembly-obama/. As Pompeo believes Iran is currently the most important strategic threat to the US, he calls for taking direct and provocative action against Iran, such as promoting internal disintegration within Iran, launching external military strikes, and so on.5 Ryan Costello,“Trump CIA Pick Hyped Facts on Iran, Downplayed Costs of War,”accessedAugust 5,2018,https://www.huffingtonpost.com/ryan-costello/trump-cia-pick-hyped-fact_b_13181260.html. The US Secretary of Defense James Mattis has also taken an anti-Iranian stance, who reiterated that three threats facing the US were“Iran, Iran and Iran”, and whose well-known comment was the Iranian regime“is the single most enduring threat to stability and peace in the Middle East.”1 Marjorie Cohn,“James Mattis: Trump’s Military Decider,”National Lawyers Guild Review,Vol.74,No.1(Spring 2017):38-42. However, he also expressed several times that the US Defense Department had no intention of toppling the Iranian regime, nor did the US have any plans to air raid Iranian nuclear facilities. Moreover,the US news media exposed that Trump had appointed a confidential hawkish figure who was against Iran to an important intelligence post,which is in charge of running covert operations against Iran in order to overthrow the current Iranian regime.2 Matthew Rosenberg and Adam Goldman,“C.I.A. Names the‘Dark Prince’to Run Iran Operations, Signaling a Tougher Stance,”accessed August 5, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/02/world/middleeast/cia-iran-dark-prince-michael-dandrea.html. The above-mentioned officials not only catered to Trump’s anti-Iranian position, but actively designed and implemented concrete policies against Iran, and whose actions have already produced certain demonstrative effects, resulting in other members of the Trump administration and some congressmen to often propose more radical and tougher policies on Iran, which is further consolidating the hostile position of the US government against Iran.
Second, withdrawing from the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue.The official name of the Iran nuclear deal is the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which is an important document signed on July 14, 2015 by Iran and six other major countries relating the Iranian nuclear issue. The main content of the agreement states that Iran will voluntarily renounce its development of nuclear weapons and accept strict monitoring by relevant international institutions over its domestic nuclear facilities, in exchange the Western nations will gradually ease and lift economic sanctions imposed on Iran. The Iran nuclear deal reduced existing hostility between the US and Iran, and opened a new chapter for Iranian diplomacy, which was an important contribution made by China and other major countries who stand for preserving regional security and the stability of the international non-proliferation regime. Barack Obama,then President of the United States, believed this document was far more effective in preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear arms than direct military action.1 Washington Post Staff,“Full Text:Obama Gives a Speech about the Iran Deal,”accessedAugust 5,2018,https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2015/08/05/text-obama-gives-a-speech-about-the-iran-nuclear-deal/?utm_term=.6cafe4249b7c. Obama won the universal acclaim of the world for promoting the conclusion of the deal, which he himself saw as his major“diplomatic legacy”.
However, from the very beginning, this agreement never received full domestic support in the US, as some people thought the agreement had serious flaws that could not stop Iran’s nuclear program, and some believed there was a very good chance Iran was deceiving the United States. As a result, implementing such a deal would bring the US face-toface with a nuclear Iran in the end.2 Emily B. Landau,“Obama’s Legacy, a Nuclear Iran?,”Middle East Quarterly,Vol.24,No.2(Spring 2017):1-13. In addition, it remains undecided whether Iran will stick to the terms of not developing nuclear weapons during the validity of the agreement and after the agreement expires, and what nuclear policies other Middle Eastern countries will adopt under the influence of the agreement.3 Robert Einhorn and Richard Nephew,“The Iran Deal: Prelude to Proliferation in the Middle East?,”Foreign Policy at Brookings,Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Series Paper 11,May 2016,v-xi. Trump is the representative of those who hold such doubts. During his presidential election campaign,Trump flatly stated that the Iran deal“was the stupidest of all time”,neither eradicating Iranian nuclear programs, nor able to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear arms.4 “In Final Debate, Trump Calls Iran Nuclear Deal‘Stupidest of All Time’,”accessed August 5,2018,https://www.algemeiner.com/2016/10/20/in-final-debate-trump-calls-iran-nuclear-deal-stupidest-of-all-time/. After taking office, initiatives were made by the Trump administration on the agreement that caused some diplomatic controversy, and in the end the US formally announced it would withdraw from the agreement on May 8,2015. The Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Iran deal has become an important mark of his Iran policy, which is likely to give rise to a series of negative consequences.
Third, Iran’s powerful rise for regional influence in the Middle East.In recent years, Iran’s influence has increased in the Middle East, which has stimulated the Trump administration to rapidly introduce various policies toward Iran. Historically, most of the Gulf States are in tension with Iran, while Iran has remained relatively isolated with limited international influence. Nevertheless, under the objective impacts of the US War on Terror, the regimes in Afghanistan and Iraq that were formally antagonistic toward Iran have been removed, and the chaotic situation that followed in the Middle East has provided a good opportunity for Iran to improve its geopolitical environment and expand its influence. A research report on Iran conducted by the Congressional Research Service pointed out that Iran’s regional influence had been significantly increasing after the Iraq War, as it was financing anti-American international terrorist groups,promoting the civil war in Yemen, infiltrating the new Iraqi government,and making great efforts to organize a coalition against Israel.1 Kenneth Katzman,“Iran: U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses,”Congressional Research Service,RL32048,June 30,2014,34-50. Trump personally believed that Iran was trying to expand its military presence in Lebanon,Afghanistan, and Iraq, among others, through the strength of the IRGC,“fuel conflict, terror, and turmoil throughout the Middle East and beyond”, which has greatly undermined US overseas interests.2 The White House,“Remarks by President Trump on Iran Strategy,”accessed August 5, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-iran-strategy/. Mark Dubowitz instigated Trump to implement policies that were once pursued by former US President Ronald W. Reagan in containing the Soviet Union,specifically by launching a comprehensive strike against Iran’s influence in the Middle East to undercut its military and economic foundation and demolish its overseas network of contacts.3 Mark Dubowitz,“Confront Iran the Reagan Way,”accessed August 5, 2018,https://www.wsj.com/articles/confront-iran-the-reagan-way-1499197879. In addition, since the outbreak of the Iranian nuclear crisis, the US has feared the rise of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and the disastrous effects it may cause on political, military,religious and ethnic relations in the whole region.4 Michael Eisenstadt,“The Strategic Culture of the Islamic Republic of Iran:Religion, Expediency, and Soft Power in an Era of Disruptive Change,”MES Monographs,November 7,2015,27-30.
The reason the Trump administration has taken hostile policies toward Iran lies not only in Trump’s personal opinions, but also the influence of the domestic political environment in the United States.Moreover,it is also closed related with the geopolitical structure in the Middle East.The major factors for this influence include the following.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is also making efforts to encourage other countries to join in sanctioning against Iran. For example,when participating in the Hamburg G20 Summit in Germany, Trump advised the leaders of other countries to“stop doing business with nations that sponsor terrorism, especially Iran.”3 Sarah Sanders,“Press Briefing by Principal Deputy Press Secretary Sarah Sanders and Director of Legislative Affairs Marc Short,”accessed August 5, 2018,https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/press-briefing-principal-deputy-press-secretary-sarah-sanders-director-legislative-affairs-marc-short-071017/. During the Munich Security Conference held in February of 2018 in Germany,the US National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster openly called on American allies to stop doing trade and business with Iran to keep the growth of Iran’s military and economic power down.3 Trump’s decision-making team believed that substantial economic sanctions would further squeeze Iran’s space for diplomatic maneuvering, forcing an internal crises to take place so as to make Iran collapse on its own; the US“must return to the days of warning off commerce and segregating Iran from global financial institutions”; and“designating the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist organization and reimposing financial sanctions could go a long way toward crippling Iran’s economy.”1 Ray Takeyh,“Taking on Iran,”National Review,December 31,2016.
Fourth, containing Iran’s regional influence. A series of geopolitical events taking place in recent years in the Middle East have disrupted regional security, which has created certain power vacuums. Particularly,after the collapse of the Saddam regime in Iraq, which had bad relations with Iran, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has, objectively speaking, turned in Iran’s favor to expand its regional influence. The Trump administration quickly became aware of the growing influence of Iran in the region and planned to castrate Iran’s strategic development plan of building a northern arch that stretches from Tehran to Beirut by proactively containing Iran’s regional expansion and reinforcing the geopolitical influence of the US and its allies in the Middle East.
With the extremist organization ISIS being gradually defeated, the Trump administration has already begun to plan the reorganizing of the US military forces to fight against the extremist organization to contain Iran,such as launching strikes against the pro-Iran Houthi armed forces in Yemen, toppling the Bashar regime in Syria, and cutting off Iran’s relations with the Hezbollah.2 Kenneth Pollack and Bilal Y. Saab,“Countering Iran,”Washington Quarterly,Vol.40,No.3(2017):97-108. The Hawks in the Trump administration have even gone so far as to push the government to get directly involved in the Syrian civil war so as to crack down on Iran’s military influence in Syria.3 Kate Brannen, Dan De Luce and Paul McLeary,“White House Officials Push for Widening War in Syria Over Pentagon Objections,”Foreign Policy Magazine,June 17,2017. On May 21, 2018, when elaborating on the current Iran policy of the Trump administration, the US Secretary of State Pompeo stressed that the US would collaborate with its Middle Eastern allies in a joint effort to resist Iran’s“aggression”.1 Mike Pompeo,“After the Deal:A New Iran Strategy,”accessed August 5,2018,https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2018/05/282301.htm.
从操控布局来看，尼康D500完美继承了全画幅旗舰机型D5的结构，拥有众多的实体按键/拨盘，包括白平衡、图片质量、测光模式等众多功能都有其专用按键，只需配合前拨盘就可以进行相应设置，熟练后可进行盲操。对于注重连拍性能的机型来说，连拍模式转盘是必不可少的，在D500上自然没有缺失。在机身背部，能够将激活对焦功能和快门释放区分开，对于体育题材摄影师十分重要的AF-On键以及方便移动对焦点的摇杆也都在最容易接触到的位置上。
Fifth, inciting anti-government forces in Iran to cause trouble. In addition to military activity, the most directly interfering policy the Trump administration has adopted is promoting the Color Revolution in Iran, in a bid to overthrow the current regime and establish a new pro-America government. The Trump administration has schemed to support the political opposition within Iran to promote the self-collapse of the current Iranian regime through indirect involvement so as to achieve a so-called peaceful transition. For instance, the Trump administration has decided to continue investing in the Near East Regional Democracy Fund, which is specially used to assist the anti-government forces in Iran and organize political infiltration.2 Stephen McInerney and Cole Bockenfeld,“The Foreign Affairs Budget:Democracy, Governance, and Human Rights in the Middle East and North Africa,”The Project on Middle East Democracy,July 2017,30. At the end of 2017, large-scale protests broke out in many places in Iran,which have attracted much attention from Trump,who posted on social media five times in a row from December 29 to 31 to support the protesters in Iran. US Vice President Mike Pence openly gave his support to the protesters and asserted there was no way that President Trump would sit there and watch.3 Mike Pence,“Unlike Obama, Trump will not Be Silent on Iran,”accessed August 5, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/this-time-we-will-not-be-silent-on-iran/2018/01/03/d1cfc34e-f0cc-11e7-97bf-bba379b809ab_story.html?utm_term=.eab9f6b2d4f4. Trump’s principal officials held similar views. For example, Pompeo has remained firm in subverting the current regime in Iran, openly giving inflammatory remarks on several occasions when unrest occurred in Iran.4 Philip Gordon,“A Vision of Trump at War: How the President Could Stumble into Conflict,”Foreign Affairs,Vol.96,No.3,May/Jun 2017,14. Early in 2018,John Bolton said to the press,“Our (America’s) goal should be regime change in Iran.”5 Fox & Friends,“Bolton:‘Our Goal Should Be Regime Change in Iran’,”accessed August 5,2018,http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/01/01/john-bolton-trump-us-goal-should-be-regime-change-iran. On June 14,2017, former US Secretary of State Tillerson declared to Congress that the US should support“those elements inside of Iran that would lead to a peaceful transition of government.”1 Heather Nauert,“Peaceful Protests in Iran,”accessed August 5,2018,https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2017/12/276811.htm. These remarks from Trump’s decision-making team have aroused uproar around the world. The Iranian government has responded to these remarks, believing the Trump administration was pursuing blatant interventionism, which seriously violated the norms of international law. In the face of heavy pressure from international public opinion, the key decision-makers within the American government, including Trump himself, have softened their discourse, but their opinion and stance have remained the same.
The Trump administration has resumed various hostile policies against Iran,which has frozen the US-Iran relationship and,to some extent,deteriorated the domestic situation in Iran. In the field of society and economy, the resumed economic sanctions are destroying Iran’s economic system and accelerating capital outflow, which have caused various commodity prices to soar and constant protests, forcing the Iranian government to designate several sports grounds and parks in Tehran for legitimate protests.3 Thomas Erdbrink,“Iran Is Changing,but Not in Ways Trump Thinks,”accessed August 5, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/middleeast/iran-trump-nuclear-deal-protests.html. As a result, political stability in Iran has been undermined. The current Iranian President Rouhani is a moderate, whose government is more inclined to cooperate with Western powers and is striving to relax relations with the United States. However, the Trump administration does not recognize his foreign policy, believing that whoever is in control of the Iranian government is essentially deceiving the United States. Therefore, the US cannot trust Rouhani’s policies and attitude. Because of the impacts of the series of anti-Iranian policies pursued by the Trump administration, Rouhani’s moderate foreign policy has suffered serious setbacks and been attacked by domestic hardliners,creating internal and external difficulties for him.At the end of 2017,largescale protests broke out in more than 80 Iranian cities, protesting against deficiencies in the domestic governance of the Rouhani government,which have demonstrated political unrest in Iran and left spaces for the Trump administration to subvert the Iranian regime.
（3）依托水土资源发展水产林果经济。大力发展特色水产业，走常规和特色水产品养殖与深加工之路。自主研发适销对路的系列水产品，在荆门及周边地区开设漳河水产品直销店和专营连锁店。同时适应市场变化，积极调整经营思路，加强对外销售合作，漳河水产品远销北京、新疆等十多个省市。林果品结合旅游，发展生态观光农业和特色采摘销售，延长产业链，提高经济效益。漳河“李集岛”蜜橘和水产品“脱脂大白刁”品牌逐步建立。
Some of Trump’s supporters and staff are also inclined to support the above policy proposition. For instance, Tom Cotton from the Senate Committee on Military Affairs also openly expressed that the US policy on Iran should support the opposition forces in Iran to overthrow the current Iranian government.2 Olivia Beavers,“Cotton: US Policy Should Be Regime Change in Iran,”accessed August 5,2018,http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/339392-cotton-us-policy-should-be-regime-change-in-iran. Senior researcher Ray Takeyh from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) held,“The task for the (US) administration now is to study ways that we can take advantage of Iran’s looming crisis to potentially displace one of America’s most entrenched adversaries.”3 Ray Takeyh,“It’s Time to Prepare for Iran’s Political Collapse,”accessed August 5, 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/07/05/its-time-to-prepare-for-irans-political-collapse/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.4fdcb229b 63c. The American hawkish think-tank, the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies,also submitted a memorandum with similar views to Trump’s National Security Council, which was widely circulated in the White House. This memorandum deemed that the current regime in Iran was instable with the possibility of collapse on its own,and it suggested that the Trump administration mobilize the opposition forces within the current Iranian regime as much as possible and instigate domestic unrest in Iran for a“free and democratic”Iran.4 Michael Crowley,“Trump Allies Push White House to Consider Regime Change in Tehran,”accessedAugust5,2018,https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/25/trump-iran-foreign-policy-regime-change-239930. However, some research believed the US support for the Iranian opposition forces was immature, and it was unrealistic to overthrow the current Iranian regime by relying on these forces because the opposition the US could choose to support were either short of political capital and popular support or had no intention of collaborating with the US to overthrow the current Iranian regime.1 Madison Schramm and Ariane M. Tabatabai,“Why Regime Change in Iran Wouldn’t Work,”accessed August 5, 2018, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/persian-gulf/2017-07-20/why-regime-change-iran-wouldnt-work.
II
1个月后,对照组和观察组低血压发生情况分别为:10例38.46%、2例7.69%,x2=26.802,p=0.000;高血压发生情况分别为:18例69.23%、5例19.23%,x2=50.674,p=0.000;低血糖发生情况分别为:7例26.92%、1例3.85%,x2=20.441,p=0.000;心脑血管疾病发生情况分别为:13例50.00%、3例11.54%,x2=34.719,p=0.000;感染发生情况分别为:7例26.92%、2例7.69%,x2=12.920,p=0.000;组间比较结果P<0.05。由于部分患者同时伴有多种并发症,因此数据统计有重复情况发生。
Second, the hostile political environment in the US against Iran. The hostile attitude toward Iran taken by the Trump administration is deeply rooted in American ideology. Before the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the Pahlavi regime pursued a pro-American foreign policy and enjoyed very close relations with the United States. However,the Pahlavi regime fell into a governing crisis and was unable to resolve the intensifying domestic and social issues. The majority of the masses at the bottom of Iranian society were not pro-American, but rather full of hatred against the US because it stood behind the Pahlavi regime they disgusted. After the successful Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979, anti-Americanism became the mainstream in Iran, which soon turned Iran from a consort of the US to an adversary. Soon after the Islamic Revolution, the Iran Hostage Crisis occurred, which brought relations between the two countries to freezing point. The Iran Hostage Crisis gave rise to hostility within American society over the revolutionary government in Iran,providing the historic groundwork for the anti-Iranian sentiments of Americans today.1 Jin Liangxiang,“Mei fan yi zhengzhi yu yihe wenti [The US politics against Iran and the Iranian nuclear issue],”Guoji zhanwang [International outlook], No. 2(2014):64. Ever since then,the American government has increased sanctions and pressure against Iran, and has politically provoked the subsequent Iranian governments, such as providing political asylum to the exiled King Pahlavi, favoring Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War, putting Iran on the list of countries supporting terrorism, supporting anti-government forces in Iran, and exerting pressure on Iranian nuclear programs.2 Donette Murray, US Foreign Policy and Iran:American-Iranian Relations since the Islamic Revolution(Oxon:Routledge,2010),144-159. During the Obama administration, although the US-Iran relationship became somewhat relaxed, the contradictions between the two countries remained,with a strong anti-Iranian ideology prevailing in the United States. As the Iranian government remains the target of American hostility, the relaxed policy of the US toward Iran could not last long.
其次，从激进左派立场走向中左立场。拉美马克思主义政治组织极为复杂，政治立场从激进的、温和的到托派的，应有尽有。20世纪90年代以来，拉美左派政治光谱发生了显著的偏移，一方面自由主义遭受到了左派的反击，另一方面，激进左派组织也很难在经历了自由主义和民主政治洗礼的拉美大陆获得广泛的群众基础。马克思主义从一个激进的革命政治运动，转变为一个时刻保持对资本主义主要缺陷警醒的社会主义建设运动。无论中国还是拉美主要国家，都在努力寻找一条将社会主义与民主政治有效连接起来的本土化路径。
First, the anti-Iranian stance taken by Trump. The series of anti-Iranian policies currently adopted by the Trump administration may, to a large extent, be attributed directly to President Trump, who personally has played a very important role in their implementation. Since the US-Iran relationship turned for the worse in the late 1970s, all the successive presidents of the US have taken a tough stance on Iran, but they would leave space to maneuver their policies for either subjective or objective reasons. However, the exception has been the incumbent President Trump who sticks to an extreme anti-Iranian stance. In the evening of October 13,2017, Trump lashed out at Iran by taking the opportunity to elaborate on the new Iran strategy of his administration, emphasizing that Iran had“spread death, destruction, and chaos all around the globe.”2 The White House,“Remarks by President Trump on Iran Strategy,”accessed August 5, 2018, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-iran-strategy/. As some studies have shown, Trump’s tough stance on the Iranian issue is influenced, to a large extent, by domestic Jewish groups in the US, which continuously hype up the“Iran Threat”in front of Trump and lobbied him to adopt anti-Iranian policies by injecting funds.1 Steven Simon,“Iran and President Trump: What Is the Endgame?,”Survival,Vol.60,No.4(2018):13-16. As a result, Trump has been very concerned with the Iranian issue, and he often openly expresses his anti-Iranian stance.He has become more clear in his opinion about Iran being a supporter of international terrorism, as he once flatly stated,“Iran has seeded terror groups all over the world… During the last five years,Iran has perpetuated terror attacks in 25 different countries on five continents… Iran is the biggest sponsor of terrorism around the world.”2 Sarah Begley,“Read Donald Trump’s Speech to AIPAC,”accessed August 5,2018,http://time.com/4267058/donald-trump-aipac-speech-transcript/. In addition to these remarks made in formal speeches, Trump has often expressed his personal anti-Iranian opinions on his Twitter account. By July 10, 2018, Trump had personally written and posted about 38,000 tweets, of which 284 tweets contained the word“Iran”.3 Relevant information on Trump’s tweet account, accessed August 5, 2018，https://twitter.com/real Donald Trump. The posts written by Trump may be classified into three types according to their specific contents.A. Those directly criticizing the military threats posed by Iran in the Middle East and its internal governance capabilities. For instance,Trump openly stressed that the Iranian government was“an evil regime”and also“the number one state of sponsored terror.”4 Tweet posted on December 31,2017,accessedAugust 5,2018，https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/947588263103139841. B. Those expressing his discontent over the JCPOA, believing it to be a failed deal. On May 8,2018, Trump posted the news video of his formal declaration of the US withdrawal from the Iran deal on his Twitter account.5 Tweet posted on May 8, 2018, accessed August 5, 2018 ，https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/993926510003277825. C. Those attacking his political opponents at home by way of the Iranian issue, as he often talks about the failures of some American foreign policies in his Twitter posts. For instance, Trump frequently satirizes the former US President Obama and those American politicians opposing his policies on the case of Iran, emphasizing that their policies on Iran were a complete failure and had greatly undermined American interests. The anti-Iranian stance of Trump has directly promoted the introduction of various American policies on Iran, which have worsened the bilateral relationship between the two countries.
The Trump administration has pushed the US hostile ideology to a new level, repeatedly rendering the threat posed by Iran, such as claiming that the Iranian government was frequently using force for external expansion and oppressing its population to the greatest extent possible.Even when Iran was earnestly implementing the Iran nuclear deal, the anti-Iranian officials in the Trump administration were still insisting that the international investments and assistance Iran would receive after the sanctions were lifted would not be used to improve the livelihood of the people, but rather they would be used for the IRGC’s armed intervention activities or for the further development of its nuclear programs instead.1 Paul Mirengoff,“Trump Terminates U.S. Participation in Iran Nuclear Deal,”accessed August 5, 2018, http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/05/trump-terminates-u-s-participation-in-iran-nuclear-deal.php. In its endeavor against Iran, the US has increasingly applied every policy tool to the extreme. A relatively extreme case occurred on June 8, 2017, when US Republican Congressman Dama Rohrabacher openly praised the ISIS terrorist attack in Tehran and called for American cooperation with ISIS to jointly oppose Iran.2 Adrienne Mahsa Varkiani,“Republican Congressman Praises ISIS Attack in Iran, Says US Should Consider Supporting ISIS,”accessed August 5, 2018, https://thinkprogress.org/republican-congressman-calls-isis-attack-in-tehran-a-good-thing-says-maybe-we-should-back-isis-a7e9382dbe1b/. Under such a political circumstance, the Trump administration is likely to introduce successive anti-Iranian policies or even schemes to overthrow the Iranian regime with support and encouragement from those at home who are hostile toward Iran. For example, Bolton once revealed that the Trump administration was reviewing the US policies toward Iran, and the findings would show that the Iranian Islamic Revolution that broke out in 1979“will not last until its 40th birthday.”3 John R. Bolton,“Iran: Regime Change Is within Reach,”accessed August 5,2018,https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/10620/iran-regime-change.
Third, resuming economic sanctions against Iran. The US Congress passed the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act on July 24, 2017, which authorized President Trump to impose economic sanctions against targets such as Iran’s ballistic missile development programs or WMD development programs, actors that sell or transfer military equipment to Iran or supply it with relevant technologies or assistance in funds, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)and its affiliated aliens. However, Iranians believed these sanctions violated the internationally recognized human rights norms.1 Joe Barnes and Robert Barron,“H.R.3364-Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act,”Public Law 115-44,August 2,2017,888-898. Soon after,Trump himself formally signed the act into law and openly expressed that this act was intended to show Iran the American resolution, stating,“The American people will not tolerate their dangerous and destabilizing behavior.”2 The White House,“Statement by President Donald J. Trump on Signing the‘Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act’,”accessed August 5,2018,https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/statement-president-donald-j-trump-signing-countering-americas-adversaries-sanctions-act/. In a strong reaction to this act, the Iranian government quickly decided to increase its national defense budget in order to speed up the development of its ballistic missile programs and boost the capability of the IRGC in launching external operations.
本文将每个时段的交通指数直接作为指标，为排除夜间劣质数据的干扰，选用数据质量较好的06：00—21：00共16 h的每15 min粒度的交通指数数据作为计算样本，每个街道1 d有60个指数指标，每个指数都直接反应了该时刻的拥堵特征. 这样的指标选取，能够真正找到每条曲线的共性和差异性，并且符合实际交通意义. 每个时段的交通指数都作为指标的好处在于既能体现高峰期的交通拥堵特性，又能将平峰时的交通运行情况考虑在内，对于1 d的交通运行变化特性全面刻画. 通过选取以上聚类指标，使不同街道能够聚集成多种带有明显运行特征的类型街道，从而更好地分析不同类型街道的交通运行特征.
Fourth, the regional rivals of Iran have added fuel to the fire. The Trump administration’s Iran policy has also affected other countries in the Middle East, among which Saudi Arabia and Israel have played the most outstanding part.Israel has felt the most threatened by the increase of Iran’s regional influence. Iran’s undisguised hostility toward Israel has made the latter very concerned with the policies of the former. With the deployment of Iran’s military forces and other relevant military deployment occurring in Syria, Iran’s military capacity can mobilize and reach the borders of Israel, which indicates that Iran can easily attack any target within Israel.1 Bassem Mroue and Qassim Abdul-Zahra,“Iran Extends Reach with Fight for Land Link to Mediterranean,”accessed August 5,2018,https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-extends-reach-with-fight-for-land-link-to-mediterranean/. Under Iran’s military pressure, Israel has strengthened its coordination with the Trump administration and has tried to persuade the US government to take practical action against Iran to limit Iran’s military activities in Syria so as to disable Iran from challenging Israel’s strategic position in the Middle East.2 Daniel Shapiro,“Bibi Needs Trump’s Help Countering Iran in Syria,”accessed August5,2018,http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/04/bibi-needs-trumps-help-countering-iran-in-syria/.
For historical and religious reasons, Saudi Arabia has also been strongly hostile toward Iran. Especially under the circumstance that the strength of the Shiites is on the rise in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states in the Persian Gulf are making concerted efforts to counterbalance Iran and set up a military collaboration mechanism against Iran.At the same time, Saudi Arabia and other anti-Iranian Sunni states are also making increasing efforts to bring the US into this mechanism to forge a larger international united front against Iran.3 Jin Liangxiang,“Zhongdong diqu fan yilang liliang de jiemeng jiqi cuiruoxing[The alignment of the anti-Iranian forces in the Middle East and its vulnerability],”Xiandai guoji guanxi[Contemporary International Relations],No.8(2017):53-55.
Some political elites in the US have called upon the US government to cooperate with Israel and Saudi Arabia,among others,to jointly contain the influence of Iran in the Middle East. For example, Daniel Byman of the Brookings Institution stated at the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs that the Trump administration should take the initiative in cooperating with friendly countries such as Israel and Saudi Arabia to better contain Iran’s regional influence in the Middle East.4 Daniel L. Byman,“Nuclear Deal Fallout: The Global Threat of Iran,”House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Terrorism, Non-proliferation, and Trade,May 24,2017,1. US Defense Secretary James Mattis once expressed that the reason for his belief that Iran is the most threatening country in the Middle East was partially based on the intelligence and policy position he had collected from Saudi Arabia, Israel and Egypt with regard to Iran.1 Teddy Fischer,“Full Transcript: Defense Secretary James Mattis’Interview with The Islander,”accessed August 5,2018,http://mihsislander.org/2017/06/full-transcript-james-mattis-interview/. Bolton even suggested that the US launch direct air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in collaboration with Israel, or at least cut off Iran’s sources for nuclear materials so as to delay the development of its nuclear program to the greatest extent possible.2 John Bolton,“To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran,”accessed August 5, 2018,https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/26/opinion/to-stop-irans-bomb-bomb-iran.html. Trump himself is eager to change the policies of the Obama administration, as he began to strengthen diplomatic relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia as soon as getting into office, and signed major arms deals with both countries, in addition to supporting Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in Yemen and accepting Israel’s position on Jerusalem.3 Joe Barnes and Robert Barron,“Trump Preparing to End Iran Nuke Deal,”Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy,March 23,2018,3.
III
By implementing various policies, the antagonistic characteristics embedded in the Trump administration’s Iran policy have stirred up controversial waves around the world. From this, we can speculate that such antagonistic policies are bound to produce a series of negative impacts, causing trouble both at home and abroad, especially in the Middle East.
At the present stage,the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran is concentrated on the Syrian civil war.Presently,Iran has gone to extremes in supporting the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, while the latter is considered to be the arch enemy of the United States.Former US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson believed that Iran was directly involved in providing military assistance, such as arms, funds and combatants, to the Syrian regime, even going so far as to order the IRGC to participate in military operations in Syria, which had increasingly worsened the civil war and impeded the US plan to build a“democratic”government in Syria.Meanwhile, the Trump administration stressed that Iran was going ahead with its so-called Land Link to the Mediterranean by becoming involved in the Syrian civil war, and it was likely that Iran would overawe American allies such as Jordan and Israel and the American military forces in the Persian Gulf in the future.1 John Hannah,“Does Trump Intend to Thwart Iran’s Ambitions in Syria?,”accessed August 5, 2018, https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/24/does-trump-intend-to-thwart-irans-ambitions-in-syria/. Once Iran is in control of these areas, the interests of the US and its allies will be damaged. As a result, the US should take substantial measures to keep Iran from expanding its regional influence and to re-establish the authority of the US and its allies in the region.“The United States has largely ignored the expansion of Iranian military forces and proxies in Syria while focusing on driving ISIS from Raqqa and Mosul. With that goal accomplished, the (Trump)administration must correct the fatal contradiction in American policy toward Iran.”2 Frederick Kagan,“Trump Faces A Reckoning with Syria,”accessed August 5,2018, http://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/356568-america-faces-a-reckoning-with-syria.
First, creating political unrest in Iran. The setbacks embedded in the US-Iran relationship will inevitably impact the political development of Iran. Since the Islamic Revolution in Iran, the US has threatened Iran with force, infiltrated its political institutions and imposed economic sanctions against Iran. But Iran has never yielded to American pressure, and it had to face international isolation and a domestic economic recession that was caused by American hostility. In particular, the successive economic sanctions imposed by the US have drastically stagnated Iran’s economic development and increased political variables in Iran, though they are not likely to overthrow the current Iranian regime.1 Oliver Borszik,“International Sanctions against Iran and Tehran’s Responses:Political Effects on the Targeted Regime,”Contemporary Politics, Vol.22, No.1(2016):20-39. For instance, the collective sanctions imposed by the US and other Western countries around 2010 seriously undercut Iran’s oil exports and greatly depreciated the Iranian Rial, causing a sharp decline in GDP, which in the end affected the domestic politics in Iran. The Iranian president at that time, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, who was a hardliner against the West, lost the national election because he was unable to resolve the internal crises, while Hassan Rouhani,who favored a more moderate foreign policy,won the election by a high margin.2 Tian Wenlin,“Meiguo yu yilang guanxi huanhe: shenhua haishi xianshi[Relaxation of relations between the U.S. and Iran: a myth or reality],”Xiandai guoji guanxi[Contemporary International Relations],No.10(2013):39-40.
2000年，世纪之交这个秋冬季节，我在参加单位组织的一次支农采拾棉花回家途中，所乘坐拉运棉包的车辆由于侧翻冲进路边的排渠，在那次事故中，爱人永远地离开了我，而我也造成了胯关节骨折，尾骨骨折。期间，我在医院平躺了一个月方才出院，又在家休养了近10个月才上班，后来我在单位成为了一名门卫。那年，女儿年仅十岁。
Second, deteriorating regional security in the Middle East. Since the end of World War II, the Middle East has suffered from wars and turmoil,and its geopolitical situation has remained extremely unstable. After the victorious Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979, the US has often repressed and deterred Iran by imposing economic sanctions and threatening to use force, and has also responded to the Iranian issue with a“grey regional strategy”that is infinitely on the brink of war.1 Zhang Fan,“Suzhu huise quyu—telangpu zhengfu yilang xinzhanlue toushi[Resorting to grey areas: perspective of the Trump Administration’s new Iran strategy],”Shijiejingjiyuzhengzhi[Worldeconomicsandpolitics],No.5(2018):83-107. The confrontation between the US and Iran has, without a doubt, further complicated the security of the Middle East. Moreover, the chief ethnicity and religion in Iran is contradictory to other major countries in the region.Thus, the Iranian issue is mixed with other geopolitical issues in the region, such as the Palestine-Israel conflict and the Syrian civil war, creating an extremely complex situation. The Iran policy adopted by the Trump administration has made the already complicated Middle East situation even more uncertain. For example, Israel and Saudi Arabia, among others, are trying to strike the Iranian Shiite armed forces, capitalizing on the anti-Iranian attitude of the Trump administration, which is likely to escalate to military strikes against Iran,leading to an international conflict.As Iran is not willing to be beaten,it is bound to fight back with various means.For instance,on May 9,2018,Iran shelled the Golan Heights with force in response to the growing hostility of the US and Israel.
柔性形变、高速运动过程中残生的附加内应力、末端执行器等都会导致待加工零件受力变形，从而带来其工作的精度的不准确，要求能够在工业机器人研发设计中，减少代加工零件受力变形的程度。第三是控制环境因素对于工业机器人的定位精度影响，在现实中，工业生产的场所的温度大小、湿度情况都都会影响工业机器人的定位精度问题因而要求能够实现定位误差补充设定。
Although the Trump administration has criticized Iran several times for worsening the geopolitical situation in the Middle East,Iran does not in fact pose any so-called threat, instead it is making constant efforts to preserve regional stability. In recent years, drastic changes in the Middle East have forced Iran to adopt a security policy that is more defensive than offensive by nature. For example, Iran has accepted the JCPOA, launched military strikes against the extremist organization ISIS, and helped Afghanistan and Iraq set up stable governments. A stable Middle East is more in line with Iran’s national security interests, while unrest in the Middle East would expose Iran to a host of refugees and international terrorism.Just as Vali Nasr stressed,Iran’s diplomacy in the meantime was not aggressive, but based on its realistic national interests, and far more practical than what the West understood.1 Vali Nasr,“Iran Among the Ruins: Tehran’s Advantage in a Turbulent Middle East,”Foreign Affairs,Vol.97,No.2,March/April 2018,108-118. On the contrary, the various anti-Iranian policies pursued by the Trump administration will bring more disorder to the Middle East.At present, military conflict against Iran could be triggered at any moment, while a regional security crisis seems imminent.
Third, impacting the international non-proliferation regime. The stability of the international non-proliferation regime is the basis for world peace. However, a series of events in recent years have constantly challenged this regime. In particular, the outbreak of the Iranian nuclear issue has complicated the situation of global nuclear governance. With persistent efforts from the international community, the JCPOA was signed and for a moment the Iranian nuclear issue saw the dawning of a peaceful resolution. Nonetheless, the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal,believing it could not stop Iran from developing its nuclear program and the funds pumped into Iran by relevant countries might be used for its nuclear development program instead. In fact, the JCPOA has achieved its desired results, as Iran has dismantled most of its centrifuges in accordance with the agreement, positively cooperated to reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium, removed the core of the heavy water reactor,and put many of its nuclear facilities under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).2 IAEA,“Verification and Monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in Light of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231 X (2015),”GOV/2016/23,May 27,2016,1-5. Mark Fitzpatrick,Executive Director of the Americas office of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote to disprove the circulating claims about Iran’s violation of the deal one-by-one, and he emphasized that the Trump administration’s belief that Iran violated the agreement was completely contrary to the actual fact.1 Mark Fitzpatrick,“Three Strikes Against Claims that Iran Is Violating the Nuclear Accord,”accessed August 5,2018,https://www.iiss.org/en/iiss%20voices/blogsections/iiss-voices-2017-adeb/july-eb75/three-strikes-against-claims-that-iran-is-violating-the-nuclear-accord-f965.
It can be determined that the Trump administration is not concerned with whether or not Iran strictly complies with the Iran nuclear deal, but rather it is looking for a pretext to withdraw from the deal. The Trump administration’s plan is to strengthen inspections within Iran’s nuclear facilities by capitalizing on the existing provisions of the deal, such as strictly inspecting the military bases in Iran without any tangible proof.The Trump administration claimed that such inspections were intended to fix the problems in the deal, but as a matter of fact, it was intended to force Iran to refuse these inspections so it could blame Iran for violating or undermining the terms of the deal.2 Josh Lederman,“U.S.Seeks to Test Iran Deal with More Inspections,”accessed August 5, 2018, https://apnews.com/721fd%20d1bf86d4c9aa8b3b18c603ea60e/AP-sources:-US-%20seeks-to-test-Iran-deal-with-more-inspections. This extremely biased policy is likely to undermine the success of the JCPOA, and it is more likely to force Iran to resume its nuclear program and develop nuclear arms to become a true nuclear state.3 Stephen J. Cimbala,“The Trump Nuclear Posture Review Three Issues, Nine Implications,”Strategic Studies Quarterly,Vol.12,No.2(2018):12. As soon as such a situation appears, it will definitely abandon the non-proliferation achievements made so far by the deal,damaging not only the stability of the Middle East, but also severely impacting the common interests of mankind by sabotaging the stability of the international non-proliferation regime.
Fourth, increasing the disparity between the US and Europe. Since Trump was elected into office, ideological differences between the US and Europe have appeared over multiple international issues.When it comes to the Iranian issue in particular, Europe wants to reconcile with Iran and opposes the policy of the Trump administration to contain and antagonize Iran.1 Peter Jenkins,“Trump’s Iran Statement: A View from Europe,”Washington Report on Middle East Affairs,Vol.37,No.2(March/April 2018):30. The Trump administration has been plotting to abrogate the Iran nuclear agreement, while the major countries of the EU that have made strenuous efforts to work out the deal oppose this strategy.2 Jack Thompson and Oliver Thranert,“Trump Preparing to End Iran Nuke Deal,”CSS Policy Perspectives,Vol.5,No.4(2017):1-2. Even in the face of threats from America, the EU has officially stressed that all parties,including Iran, would go ahead with the JCPOA.3 AFP,“EU Says All Parties Sticking to Iran Nuclear Deal,”accessed August 5,2018,https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/afp/2017/08/iran-us-sanctions-eu.html. On July 6, 2018, during the foreign ministers’meeting on the Iranian nuclear issue held in Vienna,representatives from the EU issued a statement saying they would continue to implement the Iran nuclear agreement with the participants of the meeting, and expressed regret over America’s unilateral withdrawal from the deal.4 Josh Lederman,“U.S.Seeks to Test Iran Deal with More Inspections,”accessed August 5, 2018, https://apnews.com/721fd%20d1bf86d4c9aa8b3b18c603ea60e/AP-sources:-US-%20seeks-to-test-Iran-deal-with-more-inspections. The main reason the European countries oppose the Iran policy pursued by the Trump administration lies in the fact that some EU member states have established relatively close economic ties with Iran. After signing the Iran nuclear agreement, some EU enterprises and banks began preparing for big investments in Iran. When considering the stability of their overseas economic interests in all respects, most European countries do not want to see sudden changes to the Iranian issue.5 Ellie Geranmayeh,“The Coming Clash:Why Iran Will Divide Europe from the United States,”European Council on Foreign Relations,October 2017,3. For instance, the well-known French energy group Total invested US$5 billion in 2017,engaging in energy cooperation with Iran.6 FedericaMogherini,“StatementfromtheJointCommissionoftheJointComprehensive PlanofAction,”accessedAugust5,2018,https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-Homepage/48076/node/48076_enl. Once Trump resumed economic sanctions against Iran, most EU enterprises would have to withdraw their investments from Iran to avoid the consequences. In addition, most EU countries do not want to see another war break out in the Middle East or the return of the division between the“old and new”Europe that had occurred during the Iraq War in 2003. Carl Bildt, the former Prime Minister of Sweden,once wrote a warning to the US that said what Europe wanted was peace rather than war.“If Trump blows up the Iran deal, he’ll cause a meltdown in Europe,too.”1 Carl Bildt,“If Trump Blows up the Iran Deal,He’ll Cause a Meltdown in Europe,too,”accessed August 5,2018,https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2017/08/01/if-trump-blows-up-the-iran-deal-hell-cause-a-meltdown-in-europe-too/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.b67dfb7abf5e.
Moreover, the possibility of military conflict between the US and Iran is increasing. As some research has shown, the economic sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Iran may not produce any substantive effects, whether from a theoretical or a practical analysis, nor would they make Iran yield, rather urge Iran to seek military strategies instead.2 Emma Ashford and John Glaser,“Unforced Error: The Risks of Confrontation with Iran,”Cato Institute Policy Analysis,No.822,2017,7. The hostile policies currently pursued by the Trump administration against Iran are very much likely to lead to direct military confrontation between the US and Iran. The present way the US handles the Iranian issue is very similar to the Iraq policy pursued by the George W.Bush around 2003.At that time,many relevant international institutions stated that they had not found any proof showing that Iraq had developed and hid weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), but the Bush Jr.administration staged the Iraq War without enough conclusive evidence based on his judgment that was muddled with strong ideology. The Iraq War has inflicted huge losses and damage to Iraq, the Middle East and America, and it still continues to affect these places and have proven difficult to remove.The Trump administration is practically repeating these same old mistakes by pursuing a provocative, anti-Iranian policy that disregards the favorable development of the Iranian issue, even going so far as to bluntly claim that“the only solution is to change the regime itself.”3 John R.Bolton,“Iran:Regime Change Is within Reach.” The Hawks in the Trump administration keep clamoring for a forceful regime change in Iran without proposing any complete and feasible plans for military operation, and they do so without enough domestic and international support. Meanwhile, Iran is not equivalent to Iraq in 2003, as Iran is better off than lraq then in regard to national strength, foreign relations and many other respects. Once a direct military conflict breaks out between the US and Iran, it will inevitably incur higher costs on the US and likely put the US into a greater quagmire of war. Just as Mark Fitzpatrick determined,“Unfounded assumptions,false claims and ideologically-tinged judgments are driving a confrontational approach that could well lead to another war in the Middle East, this time against a more cohesive adversary.”1 Mark Fitzpatrick,“Don’t Repeat the Iraq War False WMD Claims with Iran,”accessed August 5,2018, https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2017/08/iran-war-false-claims.
第一，以个人技能层次为标准进行分组。例如，在教学“体操的组合动作”、“篮球上篮技术”以及“足球带球过人技术”时，这几类项目可以先将学生划分成为运动技能A、B、C三个层次，然后再进行分组，确保每一个小组都有三个层次的学生，即“组内异质、组间同质”的状态。通常来讲，A层次学生基本上都已经熟练的掌握了一些技能，且身体素质比较好；而B层次的学生，虽然掌握运动技能的水平良好，但是身体素质不够全面；C层次的学生，运动技能以及身体素质都比较差，难以有效完成一个动作技术。因此，一个小组之内涵盖三个层次的学生，可以达到优势互补的目标，学生之间可以相互帮忙、合作，从而达到共同进步的目标。
* Chi Yong is a lecturer at the Research Institute for Globalization and Global Issues, China University of Political Science and Law, who focuses on the studies of international security, global governance, etc.This article, entitled“Telangpu zhengfu de yilang zhengce jiqi yingxiang,”was first published in Xiandai guoji guanxi[Contemporary International Relations], No. 9 (2018): 44-52. This paper is the result of research supported by Chinese Universities Scientific Fund, and also the initial findings of the Youth Fund Project of the Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education (serial number: 18YJCGJW003), entitled“Studies of Overseas Interests Protection by the US and Its Revelations to China.”
(edited by Zhao Jinfu)
标签：US-Iran论文; relations论文; Trump论文; ADMINISTRATION论文; JCPOA论文; economic论文; sanctions论文; the Research Institute for Globalization and Global Issues论文; China University of Political Science and Law论文;