A Critical Stage
With U.S.-Taliban talks scuttled, more challenges lie ahead for the Afghan peace process By Li Qingyan
The author is an associate researcher with the China Institute of International Studies
Soon after coming to power in 2017, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled his new strategy in Afghanistan and South Asia, hoping to change the passive U.S. status in Afghanistan. In a sketchily outlined plan at the White House, he said the new strategy would shift from a time-based approach to one based on conditions on the ground. Also, all instruments of U.S. power, diplomatic, economic and military, would be concentrated to ensure a successful outcome.
“Someday, after an effective military effort, perhaps it will be possible to have a political settlement that includes elements of the Taliban in Afghanistan, but nobody knows if or when that will ever happen,” he said.
The necessity for a new strategy arose after the U.S. remained mired in the violence in Afghanistan with no signs of change. The situation kept deteriorating with the Taliban military group stepping up its attacks on military and civilian targets and the so-called Islamic State (ISIS) extremists, driven out of Iraq, increasingly infiltrating the war-torn country.
随着社会经济的不断发展，人们生活环境得到了很大改善，此时，建筑工程为了与这种情况相适应，基本建筑形式日渐复杂，人们对建筑要求也呈现出多样化趋势。为此，很多新型施工技术出现在了项目建设之中，电气接地施工技术便属于其中之一。施工单位在施工过程中，应该以施工质量为基础，在确保建筑安全的同时，避免群众生活受到影响。为了满足这一目标，建筑工程内部的接地工作同样显得十分重要。在该项技术的作用之下，建筑物在雷雨天气中的雷击率也会大幅下降。但该技术在使用之前也存在一些前提条件，需确保混凝土和钢筋建筑施工结构连接在一起，提升整体建筑的安全系数[1]。
当前，若想有效开展土地整治工程并在其中融入农田防护与生态环境保持的相关理念，就必须要在土改部门内部构建明确的土地整改管理体系。工作人员在进行土地整改时要将农田防护与生态环境保持的理念融入其中，并以此为根据编制出具有较强可执行性的科学管理体系，并根据当地土地的实际情况和生态环境效益进行综合分析与考量，务必将农田防护与生态环境保持的环保理念落实到土地整改的实际工作之中[4]。
In addition, President Ashraf Ghani's rivals are questioning the legitimacy of his administration, asking him to hand over power to an interim government so that the elections are free and fair. But Ghani has rejected the idea of an interim government run by different stakeholders including the Taliban.
Progress in talks
After several rounds of talks, the U.S.-Taliban negotiations gradually focused on four topics: a timetable for U.S. troop withdrawal, a guarantee by the Taliban that it would stop terrorist activities, a comprehensive ceasefi re and internal dialogue within Afghanistan.
Negotiations between the Afghan Government and the Taliban are a critical part of the peace process where the state system, constitutional reform and distribution of power, including arms reorganization, will have to be negotiated. It is likely to be a long journey full of twists and turns.
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2009年轮滑项目首先在大一体育课中开设，一经开设，轮滑运动在校园里蔚然成风，随着项目开展的热度上升，教学楼周围的开阔地都成了轮滑的教学或学生课余练习的场地，场地的问题最终在建华路校区建设中得到了全面解决，建华路校区体育馆规划建成建筑面积达2000平米的室内轮滑馆，在国内首屈一指。
三是全球油气发现高峰期已过，深水是未来油气增储的重点。2000年以来的油气大发现主要位于南大西洋两岸、印度洋周缘等地区被动陆缘盆地和中东、中亚等地区前陆盆地。大油田主要位于桑托斯、滨里海、阿拉伯、扎格罗斯、尼日尔三角洲；大气田主要位于阿姆河、扎格罗斯、鲁伍马、塞内加尔、鄂尔多斯。近年全球重大发现集中在深水、前陆盆地、碳酸盐岩三大领域，深水增储地位日渐突显。自2006年以来，全球年度新增可采储量45%以上来自深水，其中2012年高达68.2%（见图5）。
The U.S. announced that it would withdraw 5,400 soldiers in the first stage, reducing the number of U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan to 8,600, and shut down five military bases. The tacit understanding was that if the Taliban failed to keep its word and Afghanistan once again became the base of threats and attacks against the U.S. and its allies, the troop withdrawal would be postponed or even reversed.
For its part, the Taliban militants have been pressing for a complete withdrawal of U.S. troops first to improve their image at home and make them appear as national heroes who fought foreign invasion.
There are opposing voices inside the Trump administration on a complete troop withdrawal. Some high-level officials have warned that a hasty withdrawal might push Afghanistan back into a civil war and jeopardize U.S. interests. Conservatives have been pressing Trump to halt the talks and refuse to sign a peace agreement.
During a media interview, Trump stressed that the U.S. would however maintain a strong intelligence force in Afghanistan.
Currently, the Afghan Government is unable to resist Taliban attacks on its own and the U.S. continues to assist it through a phased withdrawal of troops. With the U.S. military force in Afghanistan reduced, Washington is seeking to influence the future situation in Afghanistan by political, economic and diplomatic means. The strategic importance of Afghanistan, the heart of Asia, has not lessened for the U.S. Only, it aims to do the infl uencing in a more economical way.
According to a Taliban spokesperson, the U.S. agreed to withdraw all troops in 15 to 24 months, in exchange for the Taliban agreeing that the territory of Afghanistan would not be used to attack the U.S. and its allies.
他落得更低了，身下滚滚的江水奔腾声，震耳欲聋。两岸的崖壁已经完全阻隔了他的视线，他能看到的，只有前方狭窄蜿蜒的江天。
However, after eight rounds of talks, this month, Trump announced he was pulling out, following an attack by the Taliban in the Afghan capital Kabul that killed 12 people. Consequently, Trump's announced plan to pull out all U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan by the 2020 presidential election will be a severe test. So now the process to end 18 years of violence in Afghanistan is going to be even more challenging.
非洲猪瘟正在对全世界的养猪业造成严重的打击，结合目前数据，导致非洲猪瘟传入的因素主要有以下几点：①从国外进口以感染的家猪、野猪、胚胎等都有可能导致非洲猪瘟疫情。②从国外进口的受病毒感染的猪肉制品或猪鬃、猪皮制品等，这些物品中携带的非洲猪瘟病毒同样有可能导致这一疾病的大范围传播。③进口器具或工具中携带的昆虫可能会导致非洲猪瘟病毒的远距离传播。结合这几点内容，相关工作人员也应从以上几方面入手做好对非洲猪瘟病毒的防控工作[5]。
But while the talks were on, both sides tried to ratchet up their leverage. Both increased their offensives with the U.S. ordering more air strikes and the Taliban stepping up random attacks. The game continued both on the ground and at the negotiation table.
Election complexities
Afghanistan will hold its presidential election on September 28. Earlier scheduled for April, it was delayed repeatedly as the government waited for the result of the negotiations between the U.S. and the Taliban.
Afghan society has become more fragmented and it is diffi cult to reach common ground on the peace process. The political parties have been busy with the election and neglected the peace and reconciliation process.
The Taliban has insisted it will not hold talks with the Afghan Government in the first stage. So the U.S.-Taliban negotiations became mainly related to troop withdrawal timetable and the Taliban severing its links with extremist armed groups including Al-Qaeda and ISIS.
The anti-Taliban forces give priority to the election. The alliance that came to power after the Taliban's rule was overthrown by the U.S. refuses to share power with the Taliban and fears the military group will restore an Islamic emirate in Afghanistan if it were to come to power again.
U.S. military spending in Afghanistan rocketed, finally driving Trump to consider reconciliation talks. A peace agreement would end the longest war the U.S. has been engaged in and slash the military expenditure of Afghanistan.
实际做法：划分为男生、女生各四个组，其中每四组两个小组相对2～3 m之间进行站立，开展传接球的竞赛，同时也可以选择男女生之间进行分组竞赛。
To reach this objective, Zalmay Khalilzad, former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan and Iraq, was appointed special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation. Khalilzad talked with Taliban representatives and shuttled among Russia, China, India and other regional countries to win their support for the talks. This seeming shift in the U.S. strategy offered a historic opportunity for reinstating peace and stability in Afghanistan.
All this has made the issue more complicated. Since troop withdrawal, an antiterrorism guarantee, a complete ceasefire and internal dialogue are interrelated, the U.S., Taliban and Afghan Government have to come together to reach a package of solutions to change the current situation in Afghanistan.
Other actors
An ambulance arrives at the site of an explosion in Kabul, capital of Afghanistan, on September 17
Besides these challenges, the situations in other regional countries and their divergent interests will also infl uence the Afghan peace process.
Conflicts between Afghanistan's neighbors India and Pakistan have recently intensified over Kashmir. Both countries are of strategic importance to Afghanistan and the bilateral tension could affect peace negotiations.
Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey also want a role in the reconciliation in Afghanistan, but they are competing with one another and cannot create a combined force. Russia has stolen a march over them by promoting internal dialogue in Afghanistan. It has hosted dialogue in Moscow between the Afghan Government and the Taliban, and become a force in the peace process.
As an important neighbor of Afghanistan, China supports and has participated in the reconciliation process. China supports an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace and reconciliation process for maintaining regional security and stability in the neighborhood. During the third round of China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Trilateral Foreign Ministers' Dialogue on September 7, China proposed an orderly and responsible troop withdrawal for a steady transition in Afghanistan.
With Afghanistan at a critical point in its peace process, it requires the joint efforts of all related parties to ensure the desired result.
Copyedited by Sudeshna Sarkar
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