Avoiding the Trap
The “Thucydides Trap” has become a hot concept in academic and political discussions across the world. But does it really exist? Or more specifically, is a war inevitable between a rising power and an established power? Amid the current friction between China and the U.S., there is a heightened interest in finding the answer.
解决第一问，学生要能够根据题目中的已知条件，抽象出一个数学模型，列出20件产品中恰有2件不合格品的概率函数表达式：，然后进行求导运算，，根据求导结果，令，得．当时，；当时，．所以的最大值点为．上述过程包含分析问题、建立模型，确定函数表达式、计算求解，分析并解决问题等多个步骤，这一系列过程又称为数学建模．
式中,最后一个等号后第1项为直流分量,第2项为二倍频分量,频率为ω0的频谱被PSD搬移到了频率为ω=0和ω=2ω0处,其幅值取决于Vr和Vs,相敏检测信号输出后经过LPF,滤除二倍频分量后得到直流分量:P0(t)=0.5VrVscosφ,当φ=0时,P0(t)输出幅值最大,从而通过鉴幅实现信号的检测和放大,对于谐振式光学陀螺信号检测系统而言则可提高信号的检测精度。
In June 2017, Graham Allison, a prominent international political expert in the U.S. and the first dean of the John F.Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University who coined the term five years earlier, published a book titled
Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? in which he elaborates his views. Do China and the U.S. want a war? Of course, not, he said.But will the structural pressures the two countries face lead to conflict? Yes, he answered. After an examination of more than a dozen historical cases, Allison warned that the risk of war is real. But as an optimist, he believes that China and the U.S. can work together to find a path of peaceful development.
XINHUA
根据西安市教育局发布的《“名校+”工程行动计划（2018—2021年）》，该市将通过实施“名校+”工程，运用一长多校（一所名校校长兼多所薄弱学校校长）、委托管理、兼并融合、结对提升等4种管理模式，做到6个统筹，即统筹组建“名校+”，统筹改善办学条件，统筹配备管理团队，统筹配置教师队伍，统筹开展教育教学，统筹施行质量监测。
Raymond Shakesnider (center), a soybean farmer,introduces his products to customers on his farm in Louisiana on May 20. The U.S.-provoked trade friction with China has dealt a heavy blow to U.S. agricultural states
China Focus: How do you view current Sino-U.S. relations? Are Sino-U.S. relations slipping into a new cold war?
So the unintended consequence of China's rise has been its worldwide impact.From an American perspective, China hardly mattered, was very little 40 years ago and was encouraged to grow up.
超声心动图还可诊断高血压性心脏病、肥厚型心肌病，分析其出现急性胸痛的原因在于心肌肥厚会增加心肌耗氧量，降低冠状动脉血流储备能力和调节能力[18，19]，且长期处于高血压水平会导致冠状动脉粥样硬化及冠脉痉挛，出现胸痛。超声心动图能够对心内结构进行全面且清晰的观察，明确诊断由上述疾病引起的急性胸痛，临床数据表明其诊断阳性率较高，且操作具有可重复性、便于移动等特点[20]，不仅能够诊断器质性和非器质性疾病，还可对心脏功能进行评估，预测疾病的预后，指导临床选择治疗方案及治疗时机。
Confucius said the most important thing is to call things by their real name. So, if the real name is not strategic partner but strategic adversary, then that changes everything.Does Washington have a coherent idea on what to do? No, nothing. It seems that it has an attitude, not a strategy.
目前，5个试验井组已完成计划注入量，累计增油1558 t，部分油井仍在见效中，预计最终累计增油可达到1700～2000 t，井均增油340～400 t。
People initially were hoping that they were wrong because of Trump, or that maybe he would get entangled after the election,investigations about his actions would distract him and it would all go away. But I think that most people in the government now understand that view is not correct. The strategic concept of the relationship between the U.S. and China has essentially collapsed.
Is China's rise a threat to the U.S.?
And therefore, we're drifting into a Thucydidean dynamic that I've written about in my book, not just toward a new cold war,but what could be a real war, God forbid.That's where we are today and I think now,there's a search—certainly in Beijing—for a new strategic concept.
I'm very fortunate to be here in Beijing to help celebrate the 40th anniversary of China's normalization of relations with the U.S. I think anybody who watches what happened over the last 40 years has to be astounded. It's been a whole series of miracles.
在商业银行客户满意度的评定方面，为了反映不同指标的重要程度，对它们赋予不同的权值是否合理关系到模型最终评判的结果。层次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process，缩写为AHP)把评价总目标分解成各级评价指标，从高到低排成若干层次，然后对每层中的评价因素进行两两对比打分，最后通过简单的数学运算就能得到各指标所占的比例。鉴于其可操作性比较强，本文以此方法为例说明。借鉴前人的研究成果，采用目前应用较为广泛的1～9标度法[10]，对每一层次各指标间的相对重要程度进行两两比较判断，采用求平均值的方法进行数据统计，得到判断矩阵。
In 1978, 90 percent of Chinese people were struggling just to survive on $2 a day.But in 2018, that number was only 1 percent and President Xi Jinping says it will be zero by the end of 2020. That's 700 million people who used to just barely survive and now have a life. That's a great achievement for humankind and as a fellow citizen of planet Earth, the Chinese people should be proud.
The Chinese dream is about China trying to realize its potential, be everything China can be and make China great again, and that's understandable. But it's one thing to say what is your intention and another thing to be realistic about what the consequences are, even unintended consequences.
Graham Allison: In the U.S., this is not just about [President Donald] Trump; the whole U.S. political class and actually the whole policy class have essentially undergone a sea change. This turned everything upside down: Now, a country that for two decades was America's strategic partner is named America's strategic adversary.
How do you view China's Belt and Road Initiative?
That's the reason why, looking ahead, if we want to have a successful future together, it won't be the same as the last 40 years.But maybe we could construct a new form of great power relations, a new form that the world has never seen before. But, that's pretty hard to do.
A visitor showcases his Chinese name written by a calligrapher at an exhibition marking the 40th anniversary of China-U.S.diplomatic relations in Los Angeles on May 17
In an exclusive interview with China Focus, an online magazine published by the China International Publishing Group, Allison admitted that China's rapid development is causing panic in the U.S. With changes in the China-U.S. power balance, the two countries currently interact in a way that puts pressure on both of them. He has repeatedly stressed that the establishment of new strategic relations between China and the U.S. has become a top priority. An edited excerpt of the interview follows:
It's difficult to create something entirely new. However, we live in a world where there wasn't an Internet 20 years ago or smartphones 10 years ago. So new things are being invented, and maybe in this area, we could be inventive.
在高等教育中，线性代数是最重要的基础必修课程之一。选用的同济大学第六版教材，可以满足工科类本科数学基础课程教学基本要求，却被学生认为是一门难度极大的课程。线性代数的学习难度，一方面来自于课程本身的高度抽象性；另一方面，课程要求学习者在较短的时间内(一个学期)认识了解一个新的研究对象以及相关的一套新的运算规则。这些都与学生之前接触的初等数学和高等数学规律有较大的差异，接受程度较低。
For Americans, its rise is shocking. Life is going to be very difficult because China will continue rising and the U.S. will continue thinking it should be the ruling power and that interaction will be stressful for both parties.
I think the Belt and Road Initiative is a brilliant diplomatic initiative for China. I would say it has about 10 strands, but one strand has to do with the image of China helping integrate the world and develop the nodes along the network that runs from China to Europe and maybe beyond.
If there can be a high-speed rail that runs from Shanghai to Rotterdam and moves goods in a day or a day and a half, that would be fantastic. And if there can be a 5G backbone that allows people to use their smartphones to download in a second things that now take 15 minutes, that would be fantastic, and you know, we would all use it.
But if it's all done to China's standards, it will also be a source of influence for China.And again I have to say, that's normal international politics. The rest of the world, especially the U.S., is having trouble coming up with another idea to compete with this idea.
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about China's economic development?
I'm always optimistic. I've been optimistic about China's growth for the last 10 years, even though many outsiders have said China is slowing down and it's going to have a hard landing.China has huge obstacles. There's no doubt about that.
But it has a very capable government and a very determined leadership. They have many tools, including policy tools which they can use effectively. I think the question of whether China and the U.S. can find a way to have a degree of agreement and even a new strategic concept for a constructive relationship will be a big challenge.
“Looking ahead, if we want to have a successful future together, it won't be the same as the last 40 years. But maybe we could construct a new form of great power relations, a new form that the world has never seen before.”
— Graham Allison
Copyedited by Madhusudan Chaubey
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