After Al-Baghdadi
ISIS leader’s death should be a call for concerted action by the international community By Li Wei
The author is an associate researcher with the Institute of Arms Control and Security Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations
With the years-long U.S.-led hunt for Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of the terrorist group ISIS, coming to a dramatic end on October 27 with his death in Syria in a U.S. raid, the group has been dealt a blow at a time its infl uence is waning.
Under Baghdadi, ISIS controlled a vast swath of territory and tens of thousands of fi ghters. With its self-styled caliphate or Islamic state declared in 2014, it spread in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and parts of Africa and Southeast Asia, unleashing a new wave of violence and barbaric acts around the world.
Challenges for heir
A U.S.-led coalition destroyed the group’s organization and ousted it from its claimed territory in a two-year campaign, declaring victory over ISIS in March. Baghdadi’s death was the latest coup de grace.
显然，f=0对应于没有单向边的原始网络.如前所述，更大的测度指标G和更小的测度指标S表明网络抵制级联故障更强的鲁棒性.根据G和S两种测度，随着β的增加，也就意味着每一个节点增加了额外容量来接收从其它节点重新分布的负载，从图2可以看出，在给定f的每种DD策略下，网络鲁棒性如所期望的一样增加.此外，图2表明，当f≠0时，带有任意DD策略的网络比没有单向边(即f=0)的原始网络(Original)具有相对较好的鲁棒性G和S， 但随着f的增加，网络鲁棒性的变化不明显.这不同于文献[16]的研究结果，即边定向方法会降低ER网络抵制级联故障的鲁棒性，这源自于所采用的不同的负载分配机制.
After Baghdadi’s death, the group, underground but still not disbanded, announced Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi as his successor, a shadowy figure about whom even less is known than about Baghdadi. It remains to be seen if the new man will be able to command the loyalty Baghdadi did in the beginning. Joining ISIS has been losing its appeal with reports of hundreds of fi ghters deserting or being killed or captured.
What will happen to ISIS now? One possibility is it will slip into internal strife. Once a highly centralized and hierarchical administrative system with Baghdadi at the core, exercising absolute authority, ISIS has been dispersed and the cohesion has slackened. The new leader will fi nd it a challenge to claim undivided allegiance.
Counter-terrorism is regarded as a strategic tool sometimes, and there is double standard on related issues to safeguard national interests. For example, the U.S., with the intention to contain the former Soviet Union, once supported the expansion of Al-Qaeda, and called Osama bin Laden, its leader, a “freedom fi ghter.”
Threats remain
It still has fighters in Iraq and Syria. According to reports released by the UN and U.S. Central Command, there are about 12,000-18,000 fi ghters in the two countries with another 10,000 under detention. ISIS fi ghters are still able to move freely in parts of Iraq and Syria and elsewhere and launch attacks to demonstrate that the group can still strike at will. This will undermine public confi dence in the local authorities and create the illusion that ISIS has rallied and is staging a comeback.
While marking a major victory in international counter-terrorism efforts, Baghdadi’s death does not mean ISIS is on its way to extinction. The U.S. Government, military and intelligence departments have all assessed that the group still has the capability to inspire terror attacks around the world, if not actually carry them out itself, and still poses a threat to the international community.
There is also a mismatch between countries’ ability and willingness to fight terrorism. Though the U.S. and many European countries are capable of doing so, they focus more on domestic security, taking part in counter-terrorism efforts only when their own interests are involved. On the other hand, countries suffering from terrorism, such as Syria, Afghanistan and Libya, are unable to combat the menace. Their lack of resources and inhospitable terrain make it easy for terrorist groups to hide and spread out in these countries.
A band performs at a concert in celebration of the government’s victory over ISIS militants in Palmyra, Syria, on August 30
ISIS fi ghters turn themselves in to the local government in Kunar Province, Afghanistan, on August 22
Since the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States in 2001, the international community has failed to fi ght against terrorism with persistent concerted efforts. One reason is that terrorist forces are expanding, the other is that different countries have different strategic priorities.
上次苏秋琴去城里，并没有去找白天明，她是和癞阿小一起去城里耍子的。谁知癞阿小身上也没什么钱，玩了两天就囊中羞涩；癞阿小想到他的表妹杏花在一家洗脚屋里干活，很有钱的，苏秋琴也想去瞧瞧，癞阿小就带她去了。这一去，苏秋琴就让杏花说动了心，她也接起客来，这城里男人的钱太好挣了，她呆在洗脚屋里不想走了。谁知派出所的人找来了，吓得癞阿小连个人影都不见了，她不得不跟他们回来。
Vested interests
XINHUA Libya, Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the Caucasus. In May it announced new provinces in Pakistan and India. These branches have repeatedly expressed their support for their brethren in Iraq and Syria via videos. With the group’s desire to avenge Baghdadi’s death, there could be retaliatory violence around the world under the new leadership.
11月份内主要自然灾害是川藏交界金沙江滑坡堰塞湖灾害。11月3日17时40分左右，西藏自治区昌都市江达县波罗乡白格村“10·11”山体滑坡点再次发生滑坡，造成金沙江阻断，上游水位持续上涨，形成堰塞湖。泄洪后，由于蓄积水量过大出现较大洪峰，四川、云南等下游部分沿江地区受到一定影响。据统计，灾害共造成西藏、四川、云南3省(自治区)10.2万人受灾，8.6万人紧急转移安置；3400余间房屋倒塌，1.8万间不同程度损坏；农作物受灾面积3.5千公顷，其中绝收1.4千公顷；沿江部分地区道路、桥梁、电力等基础设施损失较为严重。
Hence they treat terrorism, especially specifi c terrorist organizations and terrorist incidents involving their own interests, differently, which makes it diffi cult to mobilize everyone’s strength in addressing the problem.
Some countries tend to be self-centric. While they are ready to counter any threat to themselves and would seek international assistance to maintain their own stability, they are, however, slow to respond to or even ignore other public security risks that do not affect them directly.
Another extremist group, Al-Qaeda, from whom ISIS sprang up, might profit from this. ISIS was locked in a fi erce battle with Al-Qaeda for leadership of the international jihadist movement, or holy war. Al-Qaeda dismissed Baghdadi’s self-declared caliphate as illegitimate and extremist, and criticized it as being against Islam. Followers of Al-Qaeda cheered online after hearing of Baghdadi’s death. Now some of Baghdadi’s followers might defect to Al-Qaeda. In Syria, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an alliance of militant groups once affiliated to Al-Qaeda, is likely to become the leader of domestic terrorist forces.
观察组44例泌尿外科患者的男女性别各占例数分别为21例、23例;平均年龄值(47.51±0.21)岁,年龄上限值65岁,下限值23岁。
ISIS had eight so-called provinces in Khorasan, a region in northeast Iran, Nigeria,
苏秋琴说：“我总算看明白了，与其在家守活寡，倒不如去城里挣钱呢。你看这些臭男人到了城里，有几个管得住自己的。而你没有看到那些女人，在城里有多开心呢。”
Though the post-Baghdadi era is an important time for striking at terrorism, yet U.S. President Donald Trump has announced the withdrawal of most U.S. troops from Syria, leaving only about 150 soldiers at a base in south Syria and another few hundreds to protect oil fi elds in east Syria.
With the withdrawal of U.S. troops, the struggle for dominance in the region might intensify. How to deal with the ensuing security vacuum and prevent ISIS from making a comeback will be a major challenge for the international community.
Matters have been complicated by Turkey launching an offensive against the Kurdish militia, who fought ISIS alongside U.S. troops in Syria. A large number of Kurdish security personnel, who used to guard the prisons where ISIS fi ghters and their families were held, had to leave for the frontline. Subsequently, several ISIS fighters escaped. That may affect the region’s security one day.
Against this backdrop, how the international community puts aside its prejudices and deepens cooperation to jointly combat ISIS and other terror organizations will be critical for counter-terrorism efforts.
Copyedited by Sudeshna Sarkar
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