Strategic Imbalance
U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty will bring multiple negative effects By Ling Shengli
式中:Q2为热辐射换热量,W;ε为实际物体的反射率,ε=0.5;σ为黑体辐射系数,σ=5.67×10-8 W/(m2·K4)。
The author is a professor at China Foreign Affairs University
The U.S. officially abandoned the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on August 2. Although the Donald Trump administration announced the withdrawal last October, the substantial implications are becoming visible now that the announcement has gone into effect. The unilateral withdrawal from the treaty will have signifi cant effects on international strategic stability and cause wide-ranging harm to U.S.-Russia ties, regional security and global nuclear stability.
Growing divergences
The INF Treaty, signed between the U.S. and the Soviet Union in December 1987, banned the two signatory countries from possessing, producing or conducting test flights of ground-launched cruise missiles and ballistic missiles with a range of 500-5,500 km.
The treaty was signed at the height of U.S.-Russia arms control and disarmament, once key to easing the arm race. After the Cold War, the treaty continued to be in force and significantly contributed to nuclear disarmament, easing global tensions and balancing the global nuclear strategy.
《中国互联网发展报告2018》显示,2017年,中国数字经济总量达到27.2万亿元,占GDP比重达到32.9%,数字经济对GDP增长贡献达55%。其中,数字经济对服务业、工业和农业的渗透率分别达到32.6%、17.2%和6.5%。数字技术不仅改变着人们的生活,也改变着产业生态。
Since Trump came to power in 2017, the U.S. Government has acted unilaterally and withdrawn from multiple international treaties, which in his view were not in the interest of his country, regardless of the harm to its reputation and international image. The INF Treaty was not an exception, although it was valuable for the global strategic balance. There are three strategic considerations behind Trump's move on the treaty.
This tit-for-tat action will inevitably lead to the deterioration of U.S.-Russia relations. And the nuclear imbalance between the two countries will continue to grow.
As time passed, such loopholes became more evident and the effectiveness of the INF Treaty declined. Based on their respective interests, the U.S. and Russia usually held different positions on the value of the treaty.
To maintain its hegemony, the U.S. repeatedly attempted to revise or ditch the treaty, as it limited the U.S. ability to deploy nuclear force in Asia-Pacific and other areas. For Russia, this treaty contributed to checking the increasing gap with the U.S. in strategic force.
The already strained U.S.-Russia ties will become worse. After the Crimean crisis of 2014, these relations hit a low point and didn't improve after Trump came to power as he was trapped in the so-called Russiagate scandal.
The INF, however, failed to effectively restrict the nuclear and missile development of the U.S. and Russia. This treaty banned all land-based missiles, but did not apply to air- or sea-based ones. Therefore, development of nuclear force by the U.S. and Russia was not fully limited. Their competition continued in some aspects.
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Behind the withdrawal
However, 30 years after the birth of the treaty, divergences between the U.S. and Russia in implementing it gradually increased.
Third, the U.S. is confi dent about its own nuclear force and believes Russia's counterbalance would be limited. During the Cold War, both the U.S. and the Soviet Union realized the limitations of their own nuclear force and dreaded the other's, which provided the basis for progress in arms control and disarmament. But the landscape has changed now. The U.S. has gained an upper hand in nuclear force over Russia, and the INF Treaty was more of a constraint to the U.S. than Russia. If the U.S., or even both countries return to an arms race, it would be benefi cial to U.S. interests.
Withdrawal could not save the U.S. from international condemnation of treaty violations. Such a practice indicated that the U.S. treats international treaties as tools to achieve its self-interest and shows its lack of responsibility as a big power.
Second, Trump placed huge emphasis on nuclear power in order to enhance the U.S. military strength. Compared with his predecessor Barack Obama's efforts to shape a world without nuclear force, the Trump administration not only increased national defense expenditure, but also emphasized the role of nuclear weapons. In the Nuclear Posture Review released in February 2018, the U.S. indicated it intended to diversify its arsenal, introduce two new types of nuclear weapons and enhance its nuclear deterrence. This trajectory means that any treaties restricting the nuclear force development of the U.S. will be regarded as stumbling blocks to be moved away, and the INF Treaty is not an exception.
First, the U.S. hoped to free itself from the treaty in order to develop a series of short- and medium-range nuclear missiles. To expand its nuclear power, the U.S. attempted to develop and own missiles with various ranges, which evidently ran counter to the INF Treaty. This is not the first time that the U.S. ditched treaties to expand its military force. As early as 2002, the U.S. abandoned the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty signed with the Soviet Union, followed by the accelerated development and deployment of the missile defense system.
A bitter pill
Now that the U.S. has formally withdrawn from the INF Treaty, its impact on international strategic stability cannot be ignored.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warns the world will “lose an invaluable brake on nuclear war” with the expiration of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty at the UN headquarters in New York City on August 1
实际上,甘肃道地中藏医药产业的发展基础较好,部分产地企业已经具有医药基础研究和医药专利,但专利自用率不高,专利闲置较多,专利发展规划缺乏[13],这更加证明,以高投入、高风险、高回报、研发周期长为特征的生物医药产业,必须向经济相对发达和专业智力密集的地区聚集,而兰州生物医药产业基地的发展确实有条件担当这一使命。因此,一方面要充分利用甘肃道地中、藏医药资源优势,以好药材保证好药品;另一方面要进一步增强与国内外知名医药企业和研究机构的联合协作,在区域性大尺度空间逐步形成从道地中、藏医药资源产地到医药产品市场的覆盖全产业链的广泛联动发展网络。
After the Cold War, the national strength of Russia substantially weakened. Due to a weak economy, Russia has put much emphasis on its military power, especially nuclear strength. Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 4 officially suspended Russia's participation in the INF Treaty after the U.S. ditched the deal. He warned that “if Russia obtains reliable information that the U.S. has finished developing these systems and started to produce them, Russia will have no option other than to engage in a full-scale effort to develop similar missiles.”
The U.S. and Russia started to hold different attitudes toward the function of the INF Treaty as their geostrategic priorities changed. During the Cold War, the INF Treaty served as a tool mainly to reduce nuclear competition in Europe. After the Cold War, the U.S. increased its military activities in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacifi c region, while Russia still mainly focused on its neighboring areas.
动物试验表明:低镁饮食可导致大鼠冠状动脉内皮细胞损伤、肿胀和增生。用低镁饮食饲养的家兔可使其实验性动脉粥样硬化的程度加重及血脂升高。家兔摄入较多的天门氨酸镁使得动脉粥样硬化的发生率下降、血清胆固醇和甘油三酯减少、动脉壁内膜/中膜比例降低。研究中发现血清镁同血清胆固醇的浓度呈反比关系,从而提示从饮食中摄入镁可能会防止动脉粥样硬化的形成。因此,饮食和水中镁缺乏与IHD的发病有一定的关系。镁能够减少急性心肌梗塞(AMI)患者心源性休克的发生率。
Moreover, the withdrawal will impact regional security as security competition will intensify in the long run. After tearing up the INF Treaty, the U.S. will defi nitely enhance its military deployment in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacifi c region. Russia is set to react with counterbalancing measures, which will bring uncertainties to the security of European countries.
MCP-1 level did not significantly differ between CP(313 ± 453 pg/mL) and PDAC (318 ± 481 pg/mL)patients or controls (252 ± 288 pg/mL), (P = NS) (Figure 4).
China's Opposition
Withdrawing from the INF Treaty is another negative move of the U.S. that ignores its international commitment and pursues unilateralism. Its real intention is to make the treaty no longer binding on itself so that it can unilaterally seek military and strategic edge. After withdrawing from the treaty, if the U.S. resumes the research, development and deployment of intermediate-range missiles, it will severely undermine global strategic balance and stability, intensify tensions and distrust, disrupt the current process of international nuclear disarmament and multilateral arms control, and threaten peace and security of the relevant regions.
—Hua Chunying, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on August 3
If the U.S. is to deploy new missiles in Asia, this would aggravate risks of strategic rivalry between China and the U.S. and put U.S. allies in Asia under greater pressure, resulting in a more complicated regional situation.
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Recently, the U.S. repeatedly sent messages indicating future deployment of new missiles in Asia. The Chinese Government has clearly expressed its fi rm opposition.
Sino-U.S. ties will deteriorate further if the U.S. strengthens counterbalancing against China in military areas, as bilateral ties have already hit a low due to trade friction. This will pose a grave challenge to the security of the Asia-Pacifi c region.
Lastly, the U.S. withdrawal would delay the process of global nuclear weapons control and disarmament. The disarmament drive hinges upon the self-restraint of the big powers and their honoring commitments. The unilateral attitude of the U.S. has set a bad example, which will enhance military competition and create more risks for future global security.
Copyedited by Madhusudan Chaubey
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