Deeper Insight
Political scientist Yan Xuetong's analysis of changes in today's global leadership is inspiring to all By Rick Dunham
The author is co-director of the Global Business Journalism Program at Tsinghua University and former president of the U.S. National Press Club
P olling organization Gallup's Rating World Leaders: 2019 poll on global leadership provided a sobering message to U.S. citizens accustomed to widespread respect. The median rating for U.S. global leadership in more than 130 nations stood at 31 percent, 3 percentage points behind China and just 1 percentage point above Russia.
The U.S.'s reputation for global leadership has plummeted by 17 percentage points since Donald Trump assumed the presidency two years ago, according to Gallup,while China's standing has edged up by 5 percentage points since Xi Jinping was elected top leader of the Communist Party of China in 2012.
Today, the world's two largest economies are engaged in a series of competitions around the world, from innovation in 21st-century technologies to the projection of soft power.The U.S. and China, branded a “strategic competitor” by the U.S. State Department in December 2017, are pursuing their own visions of global bridge building, both figuratively and literally.
Political commentators and academics have offered strong opinions about the divergent approaches of China and the U.S., but rarely are these opinions combined with a systematic methodology to analyze today's rapid changes in global leadership.
3.4 提高姜黄素的缓释作用 微胶囊可以做到缓慢释放药物，维持稳定药物浓度，延长药物作用时间，减少给药次数，从而达到减少药物不良反应的目的。其中，壳聚糖微囊可通过形成电解质膜来达到缓释给药。曲建全[25]发现，儿茶素-壳聚糖微囊的释放速度较姜黄素-壳聚糖微囊更快，这可能由于姜黄素为脂溶性物质，缓释能力相对更强。潘振华等[26]对姜黄素微囊进行体外释放实验发现，微胶囊化后的姜黄素在12 h内释放相对较慢，体外释放略微延长，具有良好的缓释作用。
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Yan Xuetong, Dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University and one of China's leading political scientists,presents a thorough and thought-provoking framework to analyze global power in the era of a rising China. His new book, Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers, analyzes the upward trajectory of China amid three decades of inconstant U.S. efforts. It is a powerful intellectual treatise worthy of serious international debate.
Moreover, Yan does not limit his quotations to Chinese thinkers of the distant past. He liberally includes the analysis of modern Chinese intellectuals.The result is a book that is fresh and provocative. Whether you agree with Yan's conclusions or not, he bases them on comprehensive historical analysis tempered by contemporary events.
Power of moral authority
Yan sees global power as a zero-sum game.If one nation is rising, its increased influence must come at the expense of another power. No dominant nation can avoid eventual decline, whether it is the Qin Dynasty(221-206 B.C.) in China or the British Empire of Victorian times. At the close of the 20th century, the U.S. filled the vacuum caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union, only to see its unipolar dominance diminish as China increased its economic strength and international ties.
In Yan's model, China cannot challenge the U.S.'s power around the world,whether military or economic, but it can dislodge the U.S. as the world's leading power through its own increased moral authority or the U.S.'s moral decline. While economic competition will remain fierce, Yan believes there is “only a very slight risk” of a “direct war” in the next decade.
Amid the rise of China, Yan argues persuasively that the world's geopolitical center is shifting from the declining continent of Europe to the rising region of East Asia. In the absence of a hegemonic duopoly—dubbed “Chimerica” by one analyst—the world will increasingly be fractured. We are living in an “era without a dominant ideology” in “a world without mainstream values,”Yan writes.
朋辈心理辅导员中以班级心理委员最具代表性，他们了解周围学生的特点和心理变化，能够从学生的实际情况出发，掌握学生基本情况，能够在最快的时间里地对学生的心理进行援助，并可进行长期的心理跟踪，必要时对其进行主观干预。在定期开展的心理知识普及工作中，心理委员无论是对知识的理念进行传播，还是对本班学生的心理状态进行捕捉，都能够起到骨干作用。当发现心理产生较大问题的学生时，能够快速反映到校及相关工作部门，劝告学生进行正规的心理机构进行心理解惑。因此，加强心理委员队伍建设，教育其做好心理跟踪服务，将小问题进行及时排解，大问题及时上报，避免产生过激的心理行为问题。
Yan strongly believes that the early years of the 21st century marked the decline of the liberal world order that has dominated global affairs since the end of the Cold War.“There is little hope for liberalism to survive the current challenges from nonliberalist ideologies and resume its dominance as a global influence as long as Trump's administration continues undermining the U.S.'s international reputation and leadership, and fails to grow the U.S.'s capability faster than China's,” he writes.
Yan Xuetong, Dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University, discusses his book Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers at the university
Yan's thesis is relevant on two tracks. It explains today's world and the evolving world of the next decade, and it creates a durable analytical methodology for studying power in international relations.
The mathematical formula shared by Yan is this: CC = (M+E+C)(P). In simple English, he is saying that a nation's “comprehensive capability” to project power is equal to its military, economic and cultural power,multiplied by its political capability. Harvard University political scientist Joseph S. Nye calls this “smart power,” and Yan believes this capability can offset much of the firepower of transcontinental military alliances and intercontinental missiles.
In Yan's view, China benefits from its “ef ficiency of state leadership.” (Western critics would call it unchecked central authority.)But he says China's domestic political system cannot be replicated around the world because “Chinese communist leadership” is fundamental to the model, and the Chinese Government resolutely insists on the right of nations to determine their own political models. To succeed, China must project a moral-realist philosophy of “humane authority” rather than the class struggle philosophy espoused by Karl Marx, Vladimir Lenin and Mao Zedong.
This book stands in sharp contrast to Harvard professor Graham Allison's historical concept of the Thucydides trap,where the leading world power and a rising challenger inevitably careen toward military conflict. Yan's analysis is rooted in moral authority, not military confrontation. He posits a “moral-realist theory”that attributes the rise and fall of great nations to the authority they project, not the absolute power they possess.
This reviewer is less certain of the inevitability of U.S. decline. A decade ago, the U.S. rebounded from significant setbacks to its international reputation that took place during the presidency of George W. Bush, including the disastrous occupation of Iraq, an endless war in Afghanistan, the Wall Street meltdown in 2007 and 2008 that provoked a global financial crisis, and the utopian vision of transplanting U.S.-style democracy in the Middle East and Africa.
Geopolitical shifts
A major difference between Yan's paradigm and the work of most European and U.S. scholars lies in its historical underpinnings. Yan not only cites examples from Western civilization, but relies on relevant comparisons through thousands of years of Chinese history, too. Not only do we hear from Greek, Roman and German philosophers, we also get the perspectives of Chinese philosophers, ancient and modern.
What comes next? Yan sees “a kaleidoscopic competition between various ideologies in different international forums.”Some predictions include: “The Middle East may be ravaged by the rivalry between Shias and Sunnis; Western countries, mainly European states, may bruise in the battle between liberalism and populism; Latin American countries may fall into intensified conflict over socialism and capitalism;many developing countries may suffer in the struggle between statism and civicism;communist countries may face contention between communism and economic pragmatism; and theocratic states may experience the tension between religion and secularism in the fight for political power.”
For this reviewer, a patriotic U.S. citizen, it is difficult to read and painful to acknowledge the nation's relative decline in the past two decades and the undeniable global backlash against Trumpism. If a reader accepts the idea that global power is a zero-sum game,the rise of China inevitably comes at the expense of the U.S.
U.S. leadership has veered from style to style in the past three decades. These styles, Yan writes, range from the conservative power projection of George H. W.Bush and Barack Obama to the proactive multilateralism of Bill Clinton, the aggressive interventionism of George W. Bush and the“anti-establishmentarian” aggressiveness of Trump.
以三峡水库为核心的长江干支流控制性水库群综合调度研究………………………………… 丁 毅，李安强，何小聪(13.12)
During Obama's presidency, the U.S.was the most widely respected world leader by a large margin, according to Gallup polling.
在GPS系统中，固定的数据采集形式直接影响了整个测量过程。在实际的测量过程中,GPS系统极易受到大气状况、卫星数量及空间分布、GPS卫星数量等的影响，在信号传播过程中，电离层、对流层都会影响基线的稳定情况，进而引起测量误差。通常情况下，模糊度值的解算需要在较多星数的情况下进行，星数越多，结果越可靠，一般需要至少5颗共同星进行模糊度值的解算。
We will not know whether the collapse of U.S. moral authority during the Trump years is a temporary aberration or an irreversible decline until a new U.S. president replaces today's controversial leader. U.S. leadership has proven durable over the past century,despite shifting leadership styles and accusations of hypocrisy.
“对，不后悔。为国难死，死得其所；为主义生，生得光荣。尽管我们不能尽孝，但今天我们有机会让孔志浩兄弟为我们大家尽一次孝。
Yes, China is rising and the U.S. and Europe are in relative decline. However, the future is not pre-ordained. Citizens of the world must remain curious about where we are heading, and should absorb as many smart theories as possible from varied perspectives. Leadership and the Rise of Great Powers provides us with a broader and deeper understanding of our world.
Copyedited by Sudeshna Sarkar
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