In Good Shape
By Zhang Shasha
The 2019 World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on April 9 forecasts a decline in growth this year for 70 percent of the global economy amid trade tensions and financial tightening alongside normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies. Global economic growth is projected to decline from 3.6 percent in 2018 to 3.3 percent. However, the outlook for China's growth has been revised up from 6.2 percent to 6.3 percent, making it the only major economy to have its growth rate forecast raised.
The Chinese economy expanded 6.4 percent year on year in the first quarter of this year, 0.1 percentage point higher than the IMF forecast, with the GDP reaching 21.34 trillion yuan ($3.18 trillion), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)on April 17. The growth pace was the same in the last quarter of 2018.
ICP-OES法同时测定煅炉甘石中氧化锌及13种金属元素杂质的含量 ……………………………………… 谢 凯等（16）：2179
The Chinese economy performed within an appropriate range in the first quarter, according to NBS spokesperson Mao Shengyong. “Market expectations are improving and positive factors are mounting,” he told a press conference.
“The overall situation of China's economic growth presented a relatively stable momentum in the first quarter,” Zong Liang, chief economist of Bank of China,said at a forum on April 17. He said it's not too hard for China to realize this year's target of 6 to 6.5-percent GDP growth.However, the Chinese authorities have said that instead of concentrating on the target,it's more important to pursue high-quality development.
“Compared to the end of 2018, China's economy presented a benign performance in the first quarter with some indicators registering a more-than-expected growth,”Xu Hongcai, a Beijing-based economist,told Beijing Review.
“Compared to the end of 2018, China's economy presented a benign performance in the first quarter with some indicators registering a more-than-expected growth,”
Customers buy cosmetics at a duty-free shop in Haikou, south China's Hainan Province, on April 13
Supportive measures
For example, a new batch of tax-cutting measures for small and micro businesses was rolled out on January 9 to save them 200 billion yuan ($30 billion) each year. Also,from April 1, importing enterprises have begun to enjoy cuts in value-added tax (VAT).For those previously paying 16 percent VAT,the rate is 13 percent, while those paying 10 percent now need to pay 9 percent. The reform will reduce businesses' VAT expenditure by around 225 billion yuan ($33.5 billion) this year, according to the General Administration of Customs (GACC).
The fiscal policy plays a key role for this year's growth, Xu said. The government will reduce the tax burden on enterprises as well as their social security contributions by nearly 2 trillion yuan ($298 billion),according to the Report on the Work of the Government delivered by Premier Li Keqiang at this year's session of the National People's Congress, China's top legislature, in early March.
江苏东临黄海,海岸线以偏南北走向为主,如图1所示,东侧黄海区域的海风向西侧内陆推进的过程中,形成与海岸线走向接近的温度锋区。由于海陆风与海风锋均为强度偏弱系统,因此它们的显现需要稳定的天气形势背景,以及明显的海陆热力差异。强烈的大尺度天气过程如寒潮冷锋,热带台风等具有强势系统性风场,它们将掩盖沿海海陆风和海风锋。因此有利的天气背景是沿海由相对稳定的、尺度和强度中等的高压或高压边缘控制。
A worker on a production line at a lithium battery manufacturing plant for automotive use in Tangshan, north China's Hebei Province, on April 11
Fixed assets investment (FAI) stood at 10.19 trillion yuan ($1.52 trillion) in the first quarter, up 6.3 percent year on year,0.2 percentage points higher than in the first two months. Investment in hi-tech manufacturing and services posted vigor-ous gains of 11.4 percent and 19.3 percent year on year, respectively. Private investment, accounting for around 60 percent of total FAI, outpaced the overall growth with a 6.4-percent year-on-year increase, according to the NBS.
The loosened monetary policy has also given impetus to the development of the real economy. In the first three months of 2019, new yuan-denominated loans increased by 952.6 billion yuan ($141.9 billion) year on year to reach 5.81 trillion yuan($865.7 billion), the People's Bank of China(PBC), the central bank, said.
进入初中阶段，学生的学习内容发生了明显的变化，课程门类增加，知识难度加深，给学生提出了更加严格的要求。初中生学习必须要讲究效率，创新高效的学习才能够帮助初中生快速掌握学习技巧，养成正确的学习习惯，从被动接受知识向主动探究知识转变，培养创造性思维。那么，在新课程改革背景下，如何保障初中生创新高效学习，就成了教师应该思考的热点课题。教师需要转变教学观念，重视学生体验探究的过程和方法，引导初中生自学、自得、自悟、自省，促使学生心理机能的各方面得到均衡发展。
“The potential for trade cooperation between China and other countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative is being unleashed, which is becoming a new driver for China's trade growth,” Li said.
Lian Ping, chief economist of the Bank of Communications, said factors such as the relatively ample liquidity of the banking system after multiple targeted reserve requirement ratio cuts have created a favorable environment for the more-thanexpected credit rebound. Credit financing to the corporate sector in the January-March period increased significantly compared with a year ago, indicating that credit support for the real economy has been significantly enhanced.
He attributed the growth to the policy adjustments made at the Central Economic Work Conference last December where China's economic priorities were laid down.The government has implemented a more proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, which is marginally looser.
异质性是建设区域性碳排放权交易市场的理论基础。中国地域辽阔，地区间发展差异巨大，区域性的碳交易市场和全国性的碳交易市场均有存在必要；华南地区包含广东省、广西壮族自治区、海南省、福建南部，区域内部存在碳排放强度异质性、技术异质性、行业异质性等特点，建设华南地区的区域性碳交易市场，扩大市场容量、增加异质性，能实现低碳技术转移、降低碳交易成本、加强碳市场流动性，从而实现跨省市的协同治理促进区域生态环境改善，实现华南地区区域经济与社会环境的协调发展。
China's troika of growth drivers—investment, consumption and net export—presented a good momentum in the first quarter of this year. “Overall, the three factors from the demand side are boosting China's economic growth in a balanced manner,” Zong said.
—Xu Hongcai, a Beijing-based economist
The troika
其实“末”字最初对应的反义词应该是“本”，看看“本末倒置”这个成语吧！“本”代表“树根”，比喻事物的根本；“末”代表“树梢”，比喻事物的细枝末节。所以“本末倒置”就是指把主要的和次要的、本质和非本质的关系弄颠倒了。
The manufacturing sector and consumers are the biggest beneficiaries of the tax and fee reductions as the cuts will increase enterprises' liquidity and raise the purchasing power of consumers, according to a report by China International Capital Corp.,a joint-venture investment bank.
This year, 2.15 trillion yuan ($320.4 billion) of special local government bonds are being issued, an 800-billion-yuan ($119.2 billion) increase on last year. The bonds will provide funding for key projects, laying a solid foundation for manufacturing investment.
Consumption, which has played a prominent role in driving the economy,contributed to 65.1 percent of GDP growth in the first quarter. It maintained stable growth with retail sales of consumer goods reaching 9.78 trillion yuan ($1.46 trillion),up 8.3 percent year on year, quickening from the 8.2-percent rise seen in the first two months. In addition, the per-capita disposable income of residents stood at 8,493 yuan ($1,265), up 6.8 percent year on year.
Foreign trade of goods climbed 3.7 percent year on year in the first quarter to 7.01 trillion yuan ($1.04 trillion), the GACC said on April 12. Exports increased by 6.7 percent year on year to 3.77 trillion yuan ($561.7 billion), and imports went up by 0.3 percent to 3.24 trillion yuan ($482.8 billion).
“China's economy has maintained stable growth this year, with economic indicators such as the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for March pointing to upward momentum, which provided a sound environment for trade growth,” Li Kuiwen, GACC spokesperson,said. China's manufacturing PMI came in at 50.5 in March, up from 49.2 in February,the NBS said on March 31. A reading above 50 indicates expansion and below that mark, contraction.
抗生素与肠道菌群：养殖和临床上滥用抗生素现象普遍严重。抗生素是导致肠道菌群失调的重要原因，几乎所有的抗生素在治疗疾病的同时都会导致肠道菌群失调。用抗生素处理小鼠所建立的肠道菌群失调模型已经被广泛验证和使用。
Newly added social financing totaled 8.18 trillion yuan ($1.22 trillion) in the first quarter, up 2.34 trillion yuan ($348.7 billion)from the same period last year, according to the PBC.
China's trade with other Belt and Road participants registered faster-than-average growth, with the combined trade volume standing at 2 trillion yuan, up 7.8 percent year on year.
Zhao Ping, Director of the International Trade Research Department, the Academy of China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, said China's foreign trade is maintaining “solid progress with its quality and efficiency both improved.”The growth of general trade, accounting for nearly 60 percent of the total trade volume, indicates that the competitiveness of Chinese brands has improved, Zhao said.
A foreign business woman consults with a Chinese merchant at the 125th Canton Fair in Guangzhou, south China's Guangdong Province, on April 15
However, she said while the government's efforts to stabilize foreign trade have proven effective, uncertainties re-main. They include the slowdown of the economic growth of major trading partners, geopolitical risks and intensifying protectionism.
Prospects and policies
“The Chinese economy has stabilized and rebounded,” Shen Jianguang, chief economist of JD Finance, a digital technology company, wrote in a recent article. Internal and external factors for economic growth have improved and the government's supportive policies have begun to bear fruit.However, he warned that the economic fundamentals have not yet fully stabilized.As China's economy picks up, the choice of policies remains particularly critical in stabilizing growth, Shen said. It is not enough to rely only on short-term stimulus policies.He said further tax and fee reductions, accelerated urbanization, reform of the fiscal and taxation system and a new round of opening up will boost the economy.
In addition to infrastructure projects,Xu said there is still great potential in manufacturing investment. The growth of the manufacturing industry has been slow,so it is important to increase investment and strengthen policy support for industrial transformation and upgrading, cultivating new growth momentum and innovation in technology.
It is also important to deepen financial reform and propel financial innovation while keeping risks within controllable limits. According to Xu, as China opens the financial sector wider, it is more exposed to external uncertainties. Besides, banking institutions should be alert to risks in supporting infrastructure construction, small and micro business financing and private enterprise development to prevent new bad debts. It is crucial to prevent excessive stock market and foreign exchange market fluctuations as the stability of the financial market is of great importance to maintain investors' confidence.
There is great potential in financial innovation such as fintech and asset securitization, which will enhance the efficiency of financial services in the real economy,Xu said.
“在我面前演双簧是吧？”彭伟民重新点上一支香烟，从嘴里吐出一股淡蓝色的烟雾，“事情一清二楚一目了然，贼喊捉贼欲盖弥彰，有这个必要吗？我他妈又不是白痴！”
Copyedited by Sudeshna Sarkar
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