The Adjustment of the Abe Administration’s Policy on China and Its Limits
Lyu Yaodong*
Abstract: The adjustment of the Abe administration’s foreign policy on China from tension toward détente was achieved through the combination of internal and external factors such as the China School within the Japanese ruling coalition, Japan’s business community and US economic protectionism. Starting from the promotion of bilateral interaction by means of the China-Japan Ruling Party Exchange Mechanism to discussing the feasibility of China-Japan economic and trade cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and influenced by US trade protectionism in particular, the Abe administration decided to implement foreign policy that would ease tensions between China and Japan,claiming that China-Japan relations“has entered the era of coordination from that of competition.”The adjustment of the Abe administration’s China policy is still tactical, and it remains uncertain whether Japan can adhere to the spirit of the four political documents signed between China and Japan and implement the four-point principled agreement they reached.
Keywords: China-Japan relations, China policy, Belt and Road Initiative,coordination
The impact of the adjustment of Japan’s foreign policy on China has always been significant for China-Japan relations. On the historical junction of the 45th anniversary of normalized diplomatic relations between China and Japan and the 40th anniversary of the conclusion of the China-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship,dignitaries of the ruling party,the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the head of the coalition partner,business groups and high-level government officials paid frequent visits to China, demonstrating their willingness to improve China-Japan relations.The Abe administration changed its historical hardline approach toward China, and instead, in the form of the China-Japan Ruling Party Exchange Mechanism and visits made by the business community, called for conducting China-Japan high-level contacts, launching comprehensive dialogues and exchange with China, discussing cooperation within the framework of the BRI, and jointly addressing the impact of global trade protectionism. This article intends to analyze the adjustment of the Abe administration’s foreign policy on China and its limitations.
入选标准：（1）患者均自愿加入本次试验；（2）患者均无抵触情绪；（3）患者均无严重肝肾功能不全现象；（4）患者均能够完整表达自我感受。
From Competition to Coordination
Since winning his second election,Abe had taken a hardline approach toward China, played up the“threat of China”at home and abroad, and proclaimed China’s act of safeguarding its maritime rights as destroying peace and stability in East Asia to influence public opinion to lift the ban on the right for collective self-defense, even so far as to revise the constitution. However, Abe’s foreign policy on China had not only made Japan’s regional diplomacy lackluster, but also objectively affected the peace, stability and regional economic integration process in East Asia.Abe’s foreign policy had been increasingly questioned by both the ruling and opposition parties. In particular, those from within the ruling coalition and from the business community vehemently criticized him and started to call on the Abe administration to correct the“diplomatic dilemma”regarding China. Faced with this situation, the Abe administration gradually shifted its foreign policy to better cooperate with China,enhancing bilateral and multilateral engagements, showing its willingness to ease tensions between the two countries and demonstrating a positive diplomatic posture toward China. In early 2017, in his policy speech delivered to the 193rd Diet,Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said,“We welcome China’s peaceful development. We are all fully aware of the major responsibility of Japan and China to ensure peace and prosperity of this region”,1 Prime Minister of Japan and His Cabinet,“Prime Minister Abe Delivers Policy Speech to the 193rd Diet,”accessed January 5,2018,http://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/97_abe/statement2/20170120siseihousin.html. which demonstrated a positive attitude toward his foreign policy adjustment. Because Japan illegally nationalized the Diaoyu Islands, highlevel government contacts between China and Japan had been interrupted.The Abe administration took the lead in easing tensions between China and Japan through the China-Japan Ruling Party Exchange Mechanism and exchanges between business communities,promoting bilateral engagements on multilateral occasions and further restoring bilateral dialogue mechanisms.
First, promoting engagement with China through the support of the China-Japan Ruling Party Exchange Mechanism. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has long since maintained inter-party exchange and cooperation in various forms with the LDP, Komeito, the Social Democratic Party and other major parties, which has become a major feature and an important component of China-Japan relations. The illegal nationalization of the Diaoyu Islands in 2012 by the Liberal Democratic Party regime led to a general deterioration of China-Japan relations and terminated high-level interaction between the two countries.As a result,the China-Japan Ruling Party Exchange Mechanism started to become the main channel for bilateral exchanges. With the theme of“strengthening policy communication and expanding mutually beneficial cooperation”,the mechanism has three special conference mechanisms, namely,“strengthening policy communication”,“expanding practical cooperation”and“deepening people-to-people exchanges”.2 Fu Weiran, Li Bo and Lei Guangcheng,“Zhengzhi yinling bawo guanxi daju,jiaoliu hezuo gongmou shuangying qianjing [Grasping the overall situation through political guidance and planning win-win prospects through exchanges and cooperation],”Dangdai shijie[Contemporary world],No.1(2016):29. In May 2015, when China-Japan relations were still tense, the then Chairperson of the LDP General Council Toshihiro Nikai organized 3, 000 practitioners in the tourist industry to visit China and delivered a personal letter written by Prime Minister Abe to President Xi Jinping. President Xi Jinping attended the event to encourage friendly China-Japan exchanges with Toshihiro Nikai and other Japanese practitioners from the tourist industry in attendance.This gesture was seen by the Japanese as a positive sign for improving relations between the two countries. After assuming the post of Secretary General of the LDP in August 2016, Toshihiro Nikai was committed to improving inter-party exchanges between the LDP and the CCP and promoting further improvements to the relationship between the two countries. In early 2018, when holding talks with the visiting Vice Chairperson of the National People’s Congress of China Chen Zhu,Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai again expressed his desire to achieve mutual visits by the heads of government on the 40th anniversary of the conclusion of the China-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship. He said,“We should work hard earnestly to make this year a memorable one”,1 “LDP Secretary General Meets with Vice Chair of Chinese National People’s Congress,Hopes to Promote Mutual Visits by Leaders,”Kyodo News,January 22,2018,accessed August 11, 2018, https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2018/01/041dd791689b.html. which showed his urgency to ease China-Japan tensions. Through the regular dialogues of the China-Japan Ruling Party Exchange Mechanism,the China School within the ruling coalition expressed its will to restore and develop positive China-Japan relations.
Second, exploring China-Japan cooperation within the framework of the BRI through the Japanese business community. China and Japan are one of each other’s largest trade partners and export destinations. The economic interdependence between China and Japan cannot be ignored.The total trade volume between China and Japan in 2017 reached $296.8 billion,an increase of 9.8 percent on a year-by-year basis.China is Japan’s largest trade partner, and Japan is China’s second largest trade partner(only second to the United States).2 Chinese edition of nikkei.com,“Zhongri mosuo cong‘jingzheng’zhuanxiang‘xietiao’[China and Japan explore shift from‘competition’to‘coordination’],”October 11,2018, accessed October 11, 2018, http://218.213.94.166/politicsaeconomy/politicsasociety/32523-2018-10-11-05-00-00.html. As Japan’s economy and trade is highly dependent on China, the business community called for deepening bilateral trade and economic relations and hoped the two countries could build good political and diplomatic relations. In September 2016, when a delegation composed of high-level officials from the Japan-China Economic Association, Japan Business Federation and Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry held talks with Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli of the State Council of China, the Chair of the Japan Business Federation Sadayuki Sakakibara said,“As far as the development of Japanese and Chinese economy is concerned, it is indispensable to establish good political and diplomatic relations.”1 “Japan’s Business Delegation Talks with Zhang Gaoli,”Kyodo News,September 21,2016,accessed September 14,2018,http://china.kyodonews.jp/news/2016/09/127501.html. In November 2017, during a second visit to China, the delegation sent by the Japanese business community expressed to Premier Li Keqiang their wish to participate in China-Japan cooperation within the framework of the BRI and called for the signing of the Japan-China-ROK Agreement on Free Trade and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) as soon as possible to promote the integration of the regional economy in East Asia.The Chair of the Japan Business Federation Sadayuki Sakakibara said,“I hope that stable political and diplomatic relations between the two countries can be strengthened as the basis of developing economic relations”,2 “Li Keqiang Shows Will of Economic Cooperation When Meeting Japan’s Delegation to China,”Kyodo News, November 21, 2017, accessed January 11, 2018,https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2017/11/74e8d4788eb6.html. in hopes that good relations could be maintained by continuing to hold summits.During his visit to Japan in May 2018, Premier Li Keqiang delivered a speech at a welcome reception hosted by the Japanese business community where he stressed the need to deepen China-Japan relations.In his remarks,the Chair of the Japan Business Federation Sadayuki Sakakibara stressed“the hope to actively promote cooperation in third-country markets driven by the Belt and Road Concept”and the hope that organizations from the two countries can cooperate in the construction of ports, roads, railways and other infrastructure in Asian countries. The Chair of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry Akio Mimura also welcomed the agreement China and Japan reached to establish a public-private consultation mechanism aimed at improving Asian infrastructure.3 “Japan’s Business Community Looks Forward to Expanding Business Opportunities in Asia,”Kyodo News, May 10, 2018, accessed September 16, 2018, https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2018/05/9bd4800c584a.html. Thus,the Japanese business community has become an important component of Japan’s positive engagement with China.
From the perspective of the positive significance of the adjustment of the Abe administration’s foreign policy on China,the Japanese government’s initiation of full-scale dialogues and exchanges with China in politics,economy, culture and other areas to restore high-level contact between China and Japan is helpful in accumulating mutual trust. During the APEC summit held in Da Nang, Vietnam in November 2017, Prime Minister Abe expressed his hope to President Xi Jinping to hold a summit between Japan, China and the ROK as soon as possible and restore the mechanism for mutual visits between Japan and China, which had been interrupted for many years. Later, during the ASEAN-related summit held in Manila,Philippines, Prime Minister Abe held a bilateral meeting with Premier Li Keqiang where he expressed his hope to take the opportunity of the 40th anniversary of the conclusion of the China-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship to vigorously promote strategic and mutually beneficial relations between the two countries and continue to make efforts to build stable China-Japan relations. In particular, by inviting Premier Li Keqiang to visit Japan in the capacity of the presidency of the China-Japan-ROK summit, Japan took an important step in building mutual political trust between the two countries and maintaining the common interests of East Asia. On May 8, 2018, Premier Li Keqiang officially visited Japan when he attended the China-Japan-ROK summit. Premier Li met with the Japanese Emperor, attended the commemoration of the 40th anniversary of the China-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship and a reception for his visit to Japan,and delivered a speech.During these talks between the heads of government,Abe hoped to take the opportunity to strengthen high-level mutual visits between Japan and China. From the perspective of bilateral political dialogues, the escalation of high-level interaction from a multilateral level to bilateral level has major practical significance for accumulating mutual political trust between the two countries and maintaining their common interests.
Fourth, reestablishing consultation and dialogue mechanisms with China. From 2017 to 2018, the Abe administration began to partially implement the four-point principled agreement reached by China and Japan in 2014 and gradually began to restart bilateral dialogues and consultations in the areas of politics, economy, culture and others. The first was when Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono expressed his intentions for practical cooperation during his visit to China. During this visit in early 2018, Kono said,“I hope that the second and third largest economy of the world can stand shoulder to shoulder to discuss such topics as global warming.”2 “Japanese Foreign Minister Hopes for Further Improved Japan-China Relations,”Kyodo News,January 26,2018,accessed September 7,2018,https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2018/01/1d860b4f4732.html. Since 2018 was the 40th anniversary of the conclusion of the China-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship, Japan strived to accelerate the improvement of bilateral relations by engaging in intergovernmental and non-governmental exchanges. This was the first time that Kono visited China since he took office as the foreign minister. In addition, he visited China to coordinate on relevant issues as Japan was presiding over the China-Japan-ROK summit, and he wanted to express his will to earnestly promote mutual visits by the leaders of the two countries. The second is reestablishing the China-Japan High-level Consultation on Maritime Affairs. The China-Japan High-level Consultation on Maritime Affairs is a comprehensive mechanism for communication and coordination on searelated affairs between the two countries aimed at maintaining active and effective communication and managing potential crises. In 2017 and 2018,at the seventh,eighth and ninth round of meetings of the China-Japan Highlevel Consultation on Maritime Affairs, participants from the departments of foreign affairs, national defense, transportation, agriculture, fisheries,environmental protection, maritime law enforcement and other governmental departments of China and Japan discussed specific areas and methods of maritime cooperation and exchanges between China and Japan.The sea-air liaison mechanism aimed at avoiding accidental conflicts around the Diaoyu Islands was emphatically discussed between the two defense departments.1 “Japan and China Hold Ninth High-level Consultation on Maritime Affairs in Sendai,”Kyodo News,April 19,2017,accessedApril 23,2018,https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2018/04/206ecf4ed910.html. Through several rounds of consultations, some progress was made in establishing the sea-air liaison mechanism.The third is restarting the China-Japan High-level Economic Dialogue that had been interrupted for nearly eight years.With the increasing role China and Japan play in the regional and global economy, Japan recognized that“it is necessary for the two countries to update their perspectives and think about the ways to cooperate and work together.”2 “Japan and China Restart High-level Economic Dialogue after Nearly Eight Years,”Kyodo News,April 16,2018,accessed September 14,2018,https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2018/04/73b6fb36dee8-8.html. Japanese Minister of Economy,Trade and Industry Hiroshige Seko said,“The development of economic relations between China and Japan is one of the most important foundations for the two countries, and it is critical to promote cooperation in a wide range of areas and support the exchanges between business communities.”3 In addition to cooperation in a wide range of areas,the two sides reached a consensus against US trade protectionism based on the importance of maintaining the multilateral trade system centered around the World Trade Organization(WTO)and free trade.
Reasons
First,it is necessary to maintain the consensus of the ruling coalition’s position on China.Improving relations with China has increasingly become the consensus of the ruling party, so Prime Minister Abe must loosen his tough stance toward China.Facts have shown that the Abe administration’s tough foreign policy on China has made China-Japan relations continuously deteriorate. Not only is Japan’s diplomacy in Asia unable to achieve a breakthrough, but it is also not conducive to Japan’s economic interests in bilateral and regional economic cooperation. In addition, after diplomatic relations between China and Japan were normalized, every time the two countries experienced sudden or unexpected changes, huge political costs had to be paid to ease tensions between the two countries.Therefore, the consensus of “cautiously dealing with China-Japan relations”was formed in all walks of life in China and Japan, and a voice of reason appeared from within the ruling coalition calling for the Abe administration to adjust its policy on China. On the 45th anniversary of normalized diplomatic relations between China and Japan in 2017 and the 40th anniversary of the conclusion of the China-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship in 2018, the China School in Japan’s ruling party led by Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai asked the Abe administration to adjust its policy on China to break the stalemate of Japan’s neighboring diplomacy. Toshihiro Nikai thinks that the key to improving China-Japan relations is to expand dialogues and exchanges between the two countries.With economic interdependence between Japan and China increasing,enhancing communication between the two countries in various areas is crucial to the development of China-Japan relations.Toshihiro Nikai’s idea reflects the opinions within the ruling party, which are in opposition to the idea of the“threat of China”that the Abe administration blindly plays up.In addition, as the Secretary General of the ruling LDP, Toshihiro Nikai’s resolve to revise the rules of the LDP made it possible for Abe to be elected President of the LDP three consecutive times and to perhaps become the longest serving Prime Minister of Japan since the Second World War.Therefore,when Toshihiro Nikai presented his unique proposal on China as a dignitary of the ruling party intending to assume the task of improving China-Japan relations, Prime Minister Abe made the endorsement, thus easing tensions between China and Japan became one of the breakthroughs of Japan’s neighboring diplomacy.
The reason why the Japanese government has worked to improve China-Japan relations is because it has recognized that Japan’s economic prosperity and security cannot be achieved if it continues to be in constant tension with China, the second largest economy of the world.1 Chinese edition of nikkei.com,“2018, zhongri huiyou di 5 ge zhengzhi wenjian ma? [Will there be the fifth political document between China and Japan in 2018],”January 3,2018,accessed September 21,2018,http://218.213.94.166/politicsaeconomy/politicsasociety/28620-2018-01-03-04-51-40.html?start=1. In addition,US trade protectionism,as opposed to the principle of free trade that China and Japan adhere to, further prompted the Abe administration to adjust its foreign policy on China.
脑卒中位列全球死亡原因第三位，每年会导致59万人死亡[1]，是成人慢性重度残疾的主要原因，需要长期的康复治疗[2]。在这一过程中，脑卒中后抑郁(post-stroke depression，PSD)是最常见的精神问题，约有33%的患者在脑卒中发作后发展为PSD，其临床主要表现为情绪低落、思维迟缓，以及言语动作减少等典型症状[3-4]。PSD对脑卒中患者的影响主要表现在2个方面：一方面会进一步恶化认知的恢复、身体功能的康复以及生活质量；另一方面会对患者进行康复治疗的能力有负面影响[1]。
Other political parties in the Japanese ruling coalition have helped improve China-Japan relations. Komeito, which is the ruling partner of the LDP,has long been committed to the development of China-Japan relations and played a critical historical role in the process of normalizing diplomatic relations between China and Japan.Since Komeito and the LDP formed a ruling coalition in 2012, whenever the Abe administration was off-track from the normal development of China-Japan relations, Komeito has fully played its role in rectifying China-Japan relations through the China-Japan Ruling Party Exchange Mechanism in the capacity of ruling partner. Secretary General of Komeito Yoshihisa Inoue suggested,“The atmospherics in China to improve China-Japan relations has been quite warm. I suggest we should not miss the opportunity and strive to achieve exchanges between the leaders.”1 “Prime Minister Abe Briefed by Secretary General of Ruling Partner on Visit to China,”Kyodo News, January 10, 2018, accessed September 1, 2018, https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2018/01/c4ea86d9ac3e-12-.html. This indicates Komeito’s willingness to strive to promote the adjustment of the Abe administration’s foreign policy on China and restore China-Japan relations by making full use of its role as the ruling partner. Since the second half of 2017, the Japanese government has sent various delegations to visit China. Prime Minister Abe even led many cabinet members to attend the National Day reception hosted by the Chinese Embassy and supported all-out Japanese participation in the construction of the BRI, sending a great deal of positive signals and goodwill.
It can be seen that the ruling coalition took the initiative to suggest to the Abe administration to ease tensions between China and Japan and made several visits to China by means of the China-Japan Ruling Party Exchange Mechanism. Then, the Japanese business community urged the Abe administration to discuss China-Japan cooperation on economy and trade within the framework of the BRI. Coupled with the negative influence of US trade protectionism on China’s and Japan’s economy, the Abe administration was obliged to change course. As seen from the policymaking process regarding the adjustment of Japan’s foreign policy on China, the Prime Minister’s cabinet office, as the leaders of Japanese foreign policy, was not the initial promoter of easing China-Japan tensions.Instead, the détente was the result of the combined efforts of the ruling LDP,Komeito,the business community and other decision-making actors.
The Abe administration’s compliance with the voice of Japan’s business community has made it possible to promote China-Japan cooperation within the framework of the BRI.While attending the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation in May 2017, Toshihiro Nikai submitted Prime Minister Abe’s personal letter to President Xi Jinping,expressing Japan’s position to support the concept of the Belt and Road and its will to cooperate, and hoping that the two sides could successfully hold various commemorative activities at the 45th anniversary of normalized diplomatic relations between Japan and China and the 40th anniversary of the conclusion of the China-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship to provide momentum for the development of China-Japan relations.3 “President Xi Meets with Toshihiro Nikai While Reading Abe’s Personal Letter,”Japan News Network, May 16, 2017, accessed January 10, 2018, http://www.ribenxinwen.com/articles/25498. The Joint Initiative formulated at the seventh meeting of the China-Japan Ruling Party Exchange Mechanism at the end of 2017 pointed out that the two sides should actively promote regional economic integration and cooperation between Chinese and Japanese firms in thirdparty markets, and that Japan would actively discuss specific programs for cooperation between the two countries on the basis of the BRI.4 “Seventh Meeting of China-Japan Ruling Party Exchange Mechanism Held in Fujian,”People’s Daily,December 28,2017. Toshihiro Nikai and Yoshihisa Inoue, who twice attended the meetings of the China-Japan Ruling Party Exchange Mechanism, called for developing strategic and mutually beneficial relations between Japan and China and stressed that the BRI“is a potential concept”. When briefed by the two aforementioned officials in early 2018, Prime Minister Abe said he would make a positive response on Japan’s participation in the BRI.The Japanese government promoted the establishment of the China-Japan Public-private Coordination Committee in order to discuss specific programs regarding economic cooperation in expanding the construction of infrastructure in Asia and other areas.
Second,it is in line with the need of the Japanese business community to strengthen regional economic cooperation with China. The Japanese business community has a strong will to strengthen economic cooperation with China, and the Abe administration has complied with this reality in order to safeguard Japan’s economic interests. As an important option to achieve national interests, economic cooperation is crucial for Japan to rid itself of long-term economic stagnation. Thus, the benefits brought about by China’s BRI have become the main reason for the adjustment of Japan’s foreign policy on China. With China’s regional economic cooperation escalating, particularly with the BRI attracting many Asian countries to participate and rousing strong reverberations in the international community, the Japanese business community raised doubts over the Abe administration’s tough policy toward China and called for the government to improve China-Japan relations on the basis of national economic interests. Most Japanese businesses own overseas branches, which need support from the Japanese government to formulate effective and beneficial foreign policy, while the ruling party needs strong support from the business community in parliamentary elections to occupy the majority of seats. Therefore, there is frequent interaction between the two sides on foreign policy formulation and economic support. For example, the standing committee and the investigation committee of the Japan Business Federation, the representative of Japan’s business community, present research reports on specific foreign economic issues for the Japan Business Federation to submit to the Japanese government to formulate effective foreign policy in order to“express the total will of the business community, mobilize its wisdom, shape the internal and foreign policies of the government, and carry out the general requirements of the business community.”1 WangXinsheng,Zhengzhitizhiyujingjixiandaihua[Politicalsystemandeconomic modernization] (Shehui kexue wenxian chubanshe [Social Sciences Academic Press],2002),125-126. Former Chair of the Japan Business Federation Sadayuki Sakakibara often used the expression“two wheels of a car”as a metaphor for his relationship with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.1 “Leadership of Japan Association of Corporate Executives Accuses Japan Business Federation of Catering to Government,”Kyodo News, June 14, 2016,accessed September 13,2018,http://china.kyodonews.jp/news/2016/06/122057.html. He once said,“It is crucial to maintain a free and open trading system. I hope the Prime Minister could play the role of strong leadership in cutting off the trend of protectionism and anti-globalization.”2 “Japan’s Business Groups Join Hands to Demand Autumn Temporary Diet Ratify TPP,”Kyodo News, July 13, 2016, accessed September 13, 2018, http://china.kyodonews.jp/news/2016/07/123786.html. Objectively, this makes it possible for the Japanese government to respond to the appeals of Japan’s business organizations for overseas trade and adjust its foreign policy on China.
The Abe administration’s shift from a hardline foreign policy on China to a more soft-line policy in response to the changing situation at home and abroad is still a tactical adjustment. It remains uncertain whether Japan will strategically adhere to the spirit of the four political documents signed between China and Japan and earnestly implement the four-point principled agreement between the two countries.
数据处理采用统计分析软件SPSS 21.0与Origin 8.5进行统计分析，所得结果用平均值±标准差（±s,n=3）表示，以p＜0.05为差异有统计学意义。
防汛抗旱取得全面胜利。落实防汛抗旱专项资金1.98亿元，实施水毁和抗旱应急项目190余项，完成“旱地龙”应用面积51万亩，为32支抗旱服务队添置了设备，及时排除了久治县沙柯河电站及湖东羊场娄拉水库险情，有效应对了乌兰、大通等地强降雨山洪灾害。
Limits
Third, there is a need to maintain the order of free trade in the international community. Faced with strong pressure from the Trump administration’s economic protectionism,the Abe administration needed to ease tensions between China and Japan to jointly deal with the problem.The trade deficit between the United States and Japan represented by the automobile industry has always been a thorny issue affecting US-Japan relations. From the outset of taking office, Trump has criticized Japan’s trade policy toward the United States, focusing on the massive imports of Japanese products, which led to a sudden increase of bilateral economic and trade frictions and risks. In addition, Trump sought to conclude a Japan-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA), claiming that“extremely strict rules to prevent foreign exchange manipulation will be included.”Trump believed that Abe was encouraging the yen to be devalued and accused Japan of being a currency manipulator. The issue Trump was referring to was closely associated with the quantitative easing policy supporting Abenomics.1 Lyu Yaodong,“Telangpu zhizheng hou meiri tongmeng fazhan dongxiang ji duihua yingxiang [Development of US-Japan alliance after Trump came into power and its influence on China],”Dangdai shijie[Contemporary World],No.8(2017):14. The US’demand for conducting negotiations with Japan on an FTA was aimed at making Japan open the market for agricultural products and other goods as well as forcing Japan to revoke or further lower the tariffs on beef and other sensitive agricultural products. If the negotiations break down, the United States could start to impose high tariffs on Japanese cars.2 “Japanese Business Community Calls for Policies to Promote Sustained Economic Growth,”Kyodo News,September 20,2018,accessed September 22,2018,https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2018/09/676a548d2c64.html. Besides, US trade policy to limit the imports of iron and steel affected Japan. In response to the US’measures to strengthen trade protectionism, China stressed the importance of maintaining and strengthening the free trade system based on the WTO,which was welcomed and agreed on by the Japanese government. At the end of August 2018,Japanese Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Taro Aso reached an agreement with Vice Premier of the State Council of China Han Zheng and Liu He opposing US trade protectionism.“The two sides agree that trade protectionist policies are not good for any country”,and they should be addressed within the framework of the WTO.1 “Aso Reaches Agreement with Chinese Premiers on Opposing Trade Protectionism,”Kyodo News,August 30,2018,accessed September 28,2018,https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2018/08/d550a1be6981.html.
Third, striving to achieve high-level bilateral interactions between China and Japan on multilateral occasions. On the eve of the 2014 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders’Meeting in China, China and Japan reached a four-point principled agreement where they expressed their view that a détente between them will not only benefit the two countries, but also promote stability and development in the Asia-Pacific region. During the G20 Summit held in Hamburg, Germany in July 2017,Prime Minister Abe, in his talks with President Xi Jinping, expressed his will to build a relationship of mutual trust and promote the improvement of bilateral relations in 2017, as that year was the historical junction of the 45th anniversary of a normalized diplomatic relationship between China and Japan, and in his response to China’s BRI, conveyed the idea of“conditional”cooperation. President Xi stressed that adhering to the four political documents between China and Japan and the four-point principled agreement is the political basis for developing bilateral relations, on which mutual trust can be accumulated.1 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China,“Xi jinping huijian riben shouxiang anbei jinsan [Xi Jinping meets with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe],”accessed January 5, 2018,http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/gjldrhd_674881/t1476410.shtml. During the APEC summit held in Da Nang, Vietnam in November 2017, Prime Minister Abe, again in his talks with President Xi Jinping, expressed Japan’s hope to take the opportunity of the 40th anniversary of the conclusion of the Japan-China Treaty of Peace and Friendship to strengthen high-level contacts with China, carry out mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation on economy and trade,and actively explore cooperation within the framework of connectivity and the BRI.2 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China,“Xi jinping huijian riben shouxiang anbei jinsan [Xi Jinping meets with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe],”accessed January 6, 2018, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/gjldrhd_674881/t1509735.shtml. It is worth noting that during the bilateral summit, Abe deliberately avoided mentioning the South China Sea issue, the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy and other issues that may be controversial for China.1 “What on Earth Did the Leaders from Japan and China Talk about?,”Japan News Network,November12,2017,accessed November19,2017,http://www.ribenxinwen.com/articles/25883. By making international conferences a platform for holding China-Japan summits, the Abe administration promoted interactions between Chinese and Japanese leaders and created a good political atmosphere for initiating and expanding people-to-people exchanges between the two countries.
英的一辈子，是忍气吞声的。丈夫和别的女人名正言顺过日子，是村庄公开的秘密。丈夫当着英的面，当着子女的面，当着父老乡亲的面，和那个女人下地干活、上山砍柴、上街赶集。英装着眼睛瞎了，一声不吭。只有丈夫对英拳打脚踢的时候，她才会悲痛欲绝地哭泣。她实在是不能再隐忍下去了，她不得不哭出来，使出浑身力气长声哭泣，似乎要把聚积全身的疼痛释放出来，把忍受的所有折磨，受到的所有委屈统统释放出来。英热泪肆流，宛如一座瞬间决堤的大坝似的，洪水涛涛，奔腾咆哮，一发不可收拾。
From the perspective of its content and nature, the adjustment of Abe administration’s foreign policy on China is still tactical. Objectively, there exists conflicts of interest in regard to security,politics and values in China-Japan relations, which have not been fundamentally resolved because of the China-Japan détente, so Japan’s adjustment to its foreign policy on China is still a partial one. Specifically, it includes the following aspects:First, the motives of the China School within Japan’s ruling party for adjusting its foreign policy on China are tactical. In particular, the LDP Secretary General Toshihiro Nikai always focuses on boosting China-Japan tourism and sharing the dividends of the Belt and Road cooperation,but he does not expect a comprehensive adjustment of Japan’s policy on China.Although high-level exchanges between the two countries have been achieved through the China-Japan Ruling Party Exchange Mechanism, the consensus of the Japanese ruling party and government to improve relations with China is still limited. Second, the idea of the Japanese business community to adjust Japan’s policy on China is also confined to economic interests, from which they hope to benefit from the BRI.Although the business community can influence the policies of the Abe administration, it cannot completely control Japan’s foreign policy. Third,the factor of US economic protectionism has limited effects on improving China-Japan relations. The economic protectionism of the Trump administration created the need for China and Japan to jointly maintain multilateralism and the order of free trade, but the existence of the Japan-US alliance and its history show that coordination mechanisms within alliances not only involve military and security, but also help to reach compromise based on common interests and strategic consensus to some extent in the economic realm. Fourth, the adjustment of the Abe administration’s foreign policy on China is a new variant of the hedging approach,that is,pursuing economic interests with a strategy of“separation of politics and economy”.Abe has always relied on the Japan-US military alliance and used a strategy of uniting so-called“like-minded”countries to contain China’s development,while at the same time developing economic and trade cooperation with China for its own economic benefits.This hedging approach toward China has seriously affected the normal development of China-Japan relations, caused both old and new contradictions between the two countries to accumulate,and made it hard to form mutual political trust between the two countries. Komeito within Japan’s ruling coalition, some supporters in the China School within the LDP and the business community have all advocated for easing tensions between China and Japan, which boosted the adjustment of the Abe administration’s policy on China, but there is still a tendency to separate politics from economy.Japan’s above-mentioned decisions and ideas regarding China demonstrate that the Abe administration’s adjustment to its hardline policy toward China is rooted in political and economic factors at home and abroad, and the vulnerability and uncertainty of this policy are obvious. In addition,while the relationship between China and Japan is improving, old and new problems still exist and are intertwined with each other, which is likely to influence the direction of China-Japan relations in the future.
With regards to the prospect of the Abe administration’s adjustment to its foreign policy on China, it is of utmost importance whether it can continue to adhere to the spirit of the four political documents signed between China and Japan. China has maintained consistency with its overall relations with Japan, but it still has doubts on whether the Abe administration can adhere to the spirit of the four political documents and fully implement the four-point principled agreement. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at the press conference of the“Two Sessions”in 2018,“As long as the Japanese side does not hesitate, toss about or backpedal and objectively treats and approves of China’s development,the Chinese side would like to meet halfway with Japan and jointly push the bilateral relations back to the healthy and stable track.”1 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China,“Waijiao buzhang wang yi jiu zhongguo waijiao zhengce he duiwai guanxi huida zhongwai jizhe tiwen[Foreign Minister Wang Yi answers questions by Chinese and foreign reporters on China’sforeignpolicyandforeignrelations],”accessed August 2, 2018,http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjbzhd/t1540582.shtml. In his talks with Prime Minister Abe when visiting Japan in April 2018, Wang Yi further asked Japan to“strictly abide by the principles set out in the four political documents between China and Japan, properly deal with the sensitive issues involving the political basis of the bilateral relations, implement the agreement regarding each other as partners of cooperation instead of threats and make it the consensus of all walks of life in Japan.”1 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China,“Riben shouxiang anbei jinsan huijian wang yi [Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe meets with Wang Yi], ”accessed May 1, 2018, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/wjdt_674879/gjldrhd_674881/t1551395.shtml. This statement demonstrated the importance of maintaining the political basis of the two countries to promote the healthy and stable development of China-Japan relations.In the solicited telephone conversation with Prime Minister Abe on May 4, 2018, President Xi Jinping pointed out that the two sides should review the spirit of the Treaty of Peace and Friendship,abide by the principles of the four political documents between China and Japan,implement the four-point principled agreement, keep their commitments and act according to rules. During this conversation, Abe said that Japan attaches great importance to developing relations with China and was willing to take advantage of the opportunity of the 40th anniversary of the conclusion of the China-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship to promote full-scale improvement and development to bilateral relations.2 Ministry of ForeignAffairs of the People’s Republic of China,“Xi jinping yingyue tong riben shouxiang anbei jinsan tong dianhua [Xi Jinping has solicited telephone conversation with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe],”accessed May 6,2018,http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/zyxw/t1556764.shtml. During his visit to Japan from May 8 to 11, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out,“This year is also the 20th anniversary of the China-Japan Joint Declaration and the 10th anniversary of the China-Japan Joint Declaration on Comprehensively Promoting Strategic and Mutually Beneficial Relations.The two documents, constituting the four political documents between China and Japan together with the China-Japan Joint Statement and the China-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship, are the guidelines we must adhere to for the healthy development of China-Japan relations.”3 Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China,“Li keqiang zai jinian zhongri heping youhao tiaoyue dijie 40 zhounian zhaodaihui shang de yanjiang(quanwen)[Speech by Li Keqiang at the reception to commemorate the 40th Anniversary of the Conclusion of the China-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship (Transcript)],”accessed September 19,2018,http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/zyxw/t1558512.shtml. It can be seen that China, in order to restore and develop bilateral relations with Japan, has stressed that it is necessary to further implement the four-point principled agreement, act in accordance with the principles established by the two sides, effectively control contradictions and differences between them and maintain the hard-won bilateral relations on the basis of adhering to the four political documents between China and Japan. However, Japan has only expressed that it attaches great importance to the improvement and development of bilateral relations, putting particular emphasis on the historic opportunity of the 40th anniversary of the conclusion of the China-Japan Treaty of Peace and Friendship,but it rarely mentions the integrity of the four political documents between China and Japan and the constructiveness of the four-point principled agreement. Obviously, Japan still has different opinions over the development of bilateral relations in the future.
China needs to stay alert to the intentions of the Abe administration so it can regulate the future of China-Japan relations with coordination.Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to Japan in May 2018 took a crucial step in promoting the recovery and development of China-Japan relations. China,showing consideration for the overall situation, took practical measures to recover bilateral relations with Japan and clearly stressed that adhering to the four political documents between them is the political basis of developing bilateral relations. However, regarding the future of China-Japan relations, Abe commented,“Japan-China relations have entered an era of coordination from competition. I hope to specifically promote the development of infrastructure in Asia by private firms.I am willing to push Japan-China relations into a new stage.”1 “Li Keqiang Calls for Japan and China to Join Hands in Countering Protectionism,”Kyodo News,May 10,2018,accessed May 12,2018,https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2018/05/1e017fc96b25.html. It can be seen that Abe’s view of the recovery of China-Japan relations as“shifting from an era of competition to that of coordination”indicates his approach and intentions to the adjustment of his foreign policy on China, that is, he is trying to make China-Japan relations enter a“new stage”according to his own vision through coordination. For example, on the eve of his visit to China,Abe expressed his intention to“elevate the bilateral relations to the forms in compliance with the new era.”He thought it was“necessary for China to ensure transparency of the Belt and Road concept and the sustainability of debts.”1 “Abe Refers to Demanding That China Redress Violation of Intellectual Property on the Eve of Visit to China,”Kyodo News, October 13, 2018, accessed October 14,2018,https://china.kyodonews.net/news/2018/10/0eca0894054b.html. While calling for opposition to economic protectionism, Abe expressed Japan’s position to join hands with the United States and Europe on the issue of intellectual property regarding China. Of course, in order to cope with China, whose international influence is growing, Abe refers to China-Japan relations as“shifting from the era of competition to that of coordination”in essence for the purpose of minimizing the likelihood of confrontation with China, which has a huge market. For that purpose, he even avoided visiting the Yasukuni Shrine.2 “Prime Minister Ponders about Japan-China Summit,”Kyodo News, accessed September 12,2018,https://this.kiji.is/400913102684439649?c=39546741839462401. If the Abe administration adjusts its foreign policy on China for immediate economic interests, the adjustment is obviously limited and tactical. It is still possible that sudden changes could occur to China-Japan relations in the future. In the context of Japanese politics tilting to the right and booming historical revisionism,it is foreseeable that Abe’s coordination with China will not only be limited to economic interests and regional economic cooperation,but could also possibly involve security and political interests as well as a series of other old and new issues in China-Japan relations, even the so-called“freedom of navigation”and other issues regarding the South China Sea.Therefore, the future of China-Japan relations may not be smooth, and there is still a long way to go to adhere to the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan and implement the four-point principled agreement.
Conclusion
The Abe administration’s decision to adjust its foreign policy on China was made after it considered suggestions from the ruling coalition and the business community, and because of the international situation regarding economic protectionism, thus it was limited. As the leader of Japan’s foreign policymaking, Abe did not abandon his hedging policy approach toward China, but instead moderately adjusted his tough stance toward China and adopted a coordination approach to cope with China-Japan relations.Against the backdrop of Japan’s efforts to rid itself of the“post-war system”and its tendency to tilt to the right politically to revise the peace constitution, Japan’s historical revisionism has spilled over into the international community and the existing problems in China-Japan relations may be highlighted and sharpened at any time. It is hard to assert whether the Japanese government will not hesitate or backpedal, so there might still be sudden changes to bilateral relations. In addition, Abe continues to play up the“threat of China”to the international community in the name of strategic and value diplomacy, strengthen the relevance of the Japan-US alliance to China and seek to expand the Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy led by the United States, Japan,Australia and India, which may create new frictions between China and Japan.As the second and third largest economies of the world, the recovery of relations between China and Japan will not only benefit the development of bilateral relations, but will also involve the peace,stability and development of the region and the world.The future development of China-Japan relations depends on Japan’s orientation toward the adjustment of its foreign policy on China, external influences from the international community on the situation of China-Japan relations, and whether Japan can adhere to the four political documents between China and Japan and help accumulate mutual political trust between the two countries or not. Currently, China-Japan relations have improved, and the Abe administration needs to cherish these hardwon victories and continue to maintain positive momentum for the development of bilateral relations.
*Lyu Yaodong, a research fellow and doctoral advisor at the Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), specializes in Japanese politics, foreign policy and China-Japan relations. This article, entitled“Anbei zhengfu duihua zhengce de tiaozheng jiqi xiandu”, was first published in Xiandai guoji guanxi[Contemporary International Relations],No.10(2018):7-13.This article is also a part of the outcome of the CASS Innovation Project“Japan’s Foreign Strategy and China-Japan Relations”(No.GJ08-2017-SCX-2974).
(edited by Li Xin)
标签：China-Japan论文; relations论文; China论文; policy论文; Belt论文; and论文; Road论文; Initiative论文; coordination论文; the Institute of Japanese Studies论文; Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)论文;